Leo Varadkar dishes out the tough love, actually

Has Leo Varadkar miscalculated, however slightly, and missed a golden opportunity to subtly stack the Brexit deck? 

Or has his tough-line stance in recent days allowed him to do just that, as he strategically opens up space for fresh alternatives to resolve the Brexit stand-off now he has Britain’s attention?

The questions, while not receiving much air time to date, should be considered after Varadkar’s frosty welcome from the DUP in Belfast yesterday.

And not just for “boring” Brexit reasons, as the still unknown answer will have a very real impact for both Varadkar and Ireland.

It was all so much simpler this day last week, when all was understandably rosy in the new Taoiseach’s political garden as it basked in a wave of popular support for a hard-line comment many felt was long overdue.

Despite the expected bumpy start with his Fianna Fáil confidence-and-supply colleague Micheál Martin, it was clear no early race to the general election ballot box would happen.

The new incumbent had gotten to summer with relatively few scrapes and no overlooked backbenchers grumbling too loudly about their position in life.

And, although he was criticised for his PR gimmick-peppered meetings with world leaders Justin Trudeau of Canada (socks and jogging) and Theresa May of Britain (no, it wasn’t love, it was Quite Awkward, Actually), the relatively minor faux pas had been balanced out by his first concrete position on a genuinely important issue.

And not just how to out-sock Trudeau.

At an end-of-Dáil-term roundtable media briefing, his predecessor Enda Kenny normally used to cautiously tip-toe around almost every question that carried a potential minefield of problems; Varadkar took a different approach.

Asked the inevitable question on Brexit, he cleared his throat, looked the questioners dead in the eye, and said in what was far from an off-the-cuff remark — which he repeated a short time later, just in case anyone didn’t quite catch it the first time, and emphasised yet again in a speech at Queen’s University yesterday — that Britain needed to sort itself out. Now.

The Brexit vote, noted Varadkar, took place almost 14 months ago, and yet Ireland’s nearest neighbour still has next to no coherent idea of what they voted for will actually mean on the ground. While the situation, he explained, cannot be allowed to continue, under no circumstances will Ireland sort out Britain’s mess.

“What we’re not going to do is design a border for the Brexiteers, because they’re the ones who want a border. It’s up to them to say what it is, say how it would work, and first of all convince their own people, their own voters, that this is actually a good idea,” he said.

“It’s the UK, it’s Britain that has decided to leave and if they want to put forward smart solutions, technological solutions for borders of the future and all of that, that’s up to them.

“We’re not going to be doing that work for them.”

The quotes were clear and the message behind them blunt: Pull your finger out because it’s your finger and you put it there.

The comments — which bore a striking resemblance to the same-day “clock is ticking” remarks by the European Commission chief negotiator Michel Barnier — was widely welcomed by Brussels, the Irish commentariat, and other political parties.

And, given the initial impact of the hardline message, it was easy to see why.

People — small business owners, border communities, and everyone in between — are understandably frustrated about the Brexit tragicomedy taking place across the Irish Sea and which threatens to damage us more than any other nation.

As such, it was widely felt some home truths and a bit of tough love, actually, with Britain was not before time.

Only... politics and high-level diplomacy is never that simple, particularly when a nation puffed up on Ukip-inspired nationalism is involved.

And this is where the potential problem emerges, with no one quite knowing how it will play out.

While Mr Varadkar’s comments were an initially unqualified success, there is a view — however quietly whispered — from some within Government that making the hardline move so early in the Brexit talks may in hindsight have been what all plotting politicians like the Taoiseach are always so desperate to avoid: A miscalculation.

The most coherent reason for the concern is that Varadkar’s comments last week and again yesterday mean Ireland now effectively has nowhere to go if, as expected, the Brexit stand-off escalates. Instead of ingratiating our own soft Brexit ambitions on a Britain crying out for help as it flails around in an ocean of problems of its own making, last Friday’s comments mean Ireland’s interests risk not being adequately represented in Britain’s plans.

For all his flaws, and there were many, Enda Kenny was aware of the need to act as a close personal friend to Britain during all negotiations and coax it into a soft Brexit that would help protect Ireland, with a tough stance considered the last resort. A subtle diplomatic position that was also apparent when he met Donald Trump.

And while Varadkar has a very different style — which was apparent in his own decision to leave Trump on hold during a June phone call — the decision to use a threat that one remaining Kenny-ite Government official said was our “ace in the hole” so early may not turn out to be the wise decision it at first appeared.

Keeping in with our neighbours during their hour of need instead of telling them to sort out their problems themselves would also have ensured key issues for Ireland such as a sea-border instead of a land border, the avoidance of damaging economic tariffs, and even a potential future reunification vote would be, if not top of the list, at least relatively high up.

It would also have guaranteed an unsure British government would have been thankful, turning us from an innocent Brexit victim to the linchpin in finding an amicable solution.

Instead, Varadkar’s comments have resulted in an icy silence from Downing Street, giving every indication that it will cut off its nose to spite its face if it means protecting its own interests.

And, just as problematic is the “megaphone diplomacy” criticism from DUP leader Arlene Foster and MP Jeffrey Donaldson — whose party’s founder, to be fair, never needed a megaphone — further complicating both the Brexit and Stormont stalemates when another complication is the last thing either needs.

The counterpoint is that Varadkar’s hardline comments have opened the door to him putting forward alternative solutions to the UK-EU divorce.

There is some merit for this argument, with the Taoiseach suggesting in yesterday’s Belfast speech possible options to overcome the current impasse: A UK-EU customs union similar to Brussels’ deal with Turkey; a “deep free trade agreement” between both groups; Britain rejoining the European Free Trade Association; or even a lengthy transition period during which Britain remains in the single market and customs union while issues are resolved.

All are suggestions which, if he had made them before the tough stance, would have received far less attention than they will now — suggesting this may have been the plan all along.

However, if this is the Taoiseach’s logic, then it is far from certain it will succeed.

Right now at the Brexit poker table, the stakes are high and getting higher.

And while Britain remains the biggest player in the game, the stakes are just as steep for Varadkar, who has potentially bet his own political future on whether his popular and for now widely backed tough-love gamble with our nearest neighbour will result in an outcome he and Ireland so badly needs.