Sterling braced for further fall on UK rate decision

Sterling yesterday headed for its third monthly decline as investors anticipated the Bank of England will cut interest rates and add stimulus to stem a potential fallout from Brexit.

Sterling has weakened against all of its 16 major peers in the past three months and remains under pressure as economic consequences begin to surface of Britain’s vote in June to exit the EU.

Swaps pricing show a 100% chance the Bank of England will reduce its main interest rate from a record-low 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009.

Brexit has been the main driver for the pound, according to Ned Rumpletin, the London-based European head of currency strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank.

He predicts “aggressive action from the BOE” which will “fuel extended declines in the pound.”

Mr Rumpletin forecasts sterling depreciating to $1.20 by the end of the year. Sterling weakened 0.2% to 84.33 pence against the euro, putting it on course for a 1.1% decline this month

The pound was little changed at $1.3177 in London trade. It has fallen 1% in July, after depreciating almost 9% in the previous two months.

Data released yesterday showed a drop in mortgage approvals and that a measure of consumer confidence fell this month at its fastest pace in more than a quarter century.

Earlier this month, a worse-than-expected purchasing managers index showed a contraction in manufacturing and services sectors, prompting once-hawkish Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale to call for more stimulus.

Markets are pricing in a 98% probability that the central bank will trim the rate to 0.25% when it announces its monetary policy decision on August 4.

A Reuters poll of economists on July 26 predicted the British central bank would cut its benchmark Bank Rate to 0.25% from 0.50%, but most said it would not revive its bond-buying programme for now.

The bank might take interim measures to help the economy, such as more encouragement for bank lending, while it waits for clearer signs of the extent of the Brexit hit to the economy.

Over the coming week, there are likely to be new signs of weakness in British manufacturing, construction and services in reports due out.