ESRI projections show strong growth expected next year

The ESRI has published the most upbeat growth projections for the economy since the upswing two years ago.

The think-tank is again out ahead and leading the pack in terms of the growth numbers it projects for the economy next year.

Detailing its latest forecasts yesterday, it again predicts that though the pace of growth will slow, that 2016 will record a third year of very strong growth.

It projects the economy in terms of GDP, which includes the activities of foreign companies, will expand 6.7% this year.

That’s slightly lower than the projections of some banking and broking economists, who forecast growth is surging beyond the 7% level.

The latest CSO figures show the economy was 7% larger in the third quarter than a year earlier.

For next year, the ESRI predicts the economy will grow by 4.8%.

Irish Think-tank ESRI: 2015 GDP Seen At 6.7%, 2016 GDP Seen At 4.8%

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) December 18, 2015

In terms of GNP, which many believe measures more accurately the activity of the so-called real economy because it strips out the profits generated by multinationals, the ESRI is even more upbeat in its assessment of next year.

It forecasts GNP growth of 5.2% this year and 5.3% in 2016.

Business group Ibec too also forecasts rapid growth this year, but is slightly more restrained than the ESRI in its view of 2016.

In new forecasts published this week, Ibec forecasts the economy will grow in GDP terms by 7.1% in 2015 and then expand by 4.3% in 2016 In GNP terms, the business group sees the economy growing 5.9% this year and then by 4.4% in 2016.

Meanwhile, in a bulletin published this week, ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service projects GDP here will grow 6.7% this year and by 4% in 2016.