Sentix’s eurozone break-up index for Greece shot up to 48.3% in April from 35.5% in March, suggesting one in two investors is sceptical about pledges to keep Athens in the single currency bloc.
“European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about half of all investors,” Sentix said in a statement.
Greece is weeks away from running out of cash, but talks with its EU and IMF lenders on more aid have been deadlocked over reform measures including pension cuts and labour market liberalisation that Greece must implement.
“In 2012 [ECB President] Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today,” Sentix asked.
The break-up index for the eurozone as a whole climbed to 49.0% in April from 36.8% in March, driven by the increase in expectations that Athens would quit the bloc.
That put it at about the same level as during the peak of the eurozone debt crisis in 2012.
However, Sentix’s index measuring the risk of contagion fell to a record low of 26.1%, meaning that investors do not generally expect the Greek debt crisis to spread to other parts of the eurozone.
The break-up survey covered 1,023 investors conducted April 23-25. It measures the percentage of investors that expect the eurozone to break up.