Britain to set out cost of Scottish vote

The British government will set out what it describes as positive arguments for Scotland remaining in the 307-year-old union with England and Wales by outlining the prohibitive cost of independence.

The report by the Treasury on Wednesday will suggest that an independent Scotland’s fiscal deficit in 2016 to 2017 may be more than 50% higher than the Scottish government’s forecasts, and that potential oil and gas revenues may have been overstated. The report sets out what the British government considers inaccuracies in Scotland’s childcare proposals.

“The Scottish government’s numbers simply don’t add up,” the Treasury said. “Their costing is worse than just wishful thinking.”

Scotland holds a referendum on its constitutional future on September 18. The latest move may lead to renewed accusations from nationalists of negative campaigning on the part of the British government, which is seeking to adopt more positive tactics. Private polling confirmed surveys published in newspapers that support for breaking away from the union has increased.

Prime minister David Cameron is looking for more compelling arguments for keeping the union after saying an independent Scotland won’t be able to retain the pound, faces higher borrowing costs and would have to negotiate to stay in the EU on Britain’s current terms.

The Treasury said the Scottish government’s commitment to offer 1,140 hours of free child care per year for those under school age is flawed. Scotland estimates there will be a 6% increase in women joining the workforce and an extra £700m (€865m) in tax revenue, whereas Office for National Statistics data suggest there aren’t enough unemployed mothers to meet the projection.

The report will also detail costs of Scotland having a more rapidly aging population than Britain.

Bloomberg