Long shot but recapitalisation is a possibility

There is no clear cut argument why Ireland should get a retrospective bank recapitalisation through the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Then again, there is no clear cut argument why Ireland should not get such a deal.

The obvious downside is that there is a disproportionate amount of political energy and focus directed towards securing a deal on a bank recap for what in the end amounts to little more than a pyrrhic victory.

Of course, just as in the case of the promissory note deal, there is always the chance that the Government could surprise on the upside.