No hike in ECB rates forecast

The ECB will keep interest rates unchanged this week, economists forecast in a Reuters poll, but they cannot agree on the chances of a cut in the next few months due to a murky economic outlook.

While a large majority said the Governing Council will hold the main refinancing rate at a record low 0.75% at its Thursday meeting, there was no consensus over its next move, reflecting a similar split among policymakers themselves.

A wafer-thin majority — 38 out of 73 analysts polled over the last few days — said the ECB will remain on hold for the next three months. The majority shifts to a 25 basis point cut by the end of June, but by a margin of only one respondent.