Gross debt of the state to hit €203bn by 2015: NTMA

NEW figures from the National Treasury Management Agency indicate the gross debt of the state will hit €203 billion by the end 2015.

That is the equivalent of 111.4% of GDP and contrasts with a figure of €148.1bn for 2010 which worked out at 96.2% of GDP, the NTMA said.

In 2011, the estimated figure is €173bn which is 110.8% of GDP.

The increase of €24.9bn between 2010 and 2011 is made up of an Exchequer deficit of €18.2bn in 2011, including interest payments.

It also includes conservative estimates of a further borrowing of €10bn associated with the further ramping up of the capital requirements of the banks under the most recent Prudential Capital Assessment Review

The gross review cost amounted to €24bn but is mitigated by indicative burden sharing with junior bondholders and offsets from liquid assets of National Pensions Reserve Fund, the statement said.

The figures showed also that the majority of Ireland’s medium/ long-term government securities (bonds) are owned by non-residents.

At the end-2010, 82% of Ireland’s MLT securities were held overseas while those bonds amounted to 61% of its general government debt at the end of 2010.

On the credit side, there will be cash balances of €0.6 billion and principal payment on promissory notes of €3.1bn already included in the general government debt profile for 2010.

In 2013, the debt profile of the country is at its highest in GDP terms.

Standing at an estimated €198.1bn that will represent a peak of 118.5% of GDP that year and it then starts to fall modestly after that, the figures show.