Trade surplus stays above €4bn

A 17% UNADJUSTED rise in export value in November, coupled with a 2% increase in the value of imports, kept Ireland’s trade surplus above the €4 billion mark for the third consecutive month.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, both export and import value fell by 1%, on a month-by-month basis, according to the latest monthly external trade figures from the Central Statistics Office, and the surplus was more or less unchanged, from the previous month, at €4.06bn. When unadjusted, the trade surplus was up by 37% to €4.08bn.

Davy Stockbrokers said the figures indicated that Ireland’s export sector continues to perform strongly. Davy analyst Conall MacCoille added import growth has picked up slowly — “indicative of weak domestic demand” — and is likely to pick up “only gradually” this year “given the pressures on real incomes”.

“The nominal value of Irish exports was €8bn in November, 17% higher than in the corresponding month of 2009. In volume terms, the three-month annual growth of exports in October was 11.5%, the highest rate since April 2007,” he added.

Exports increased year-on-year by 5% to €74.7bn in the first 10 months of last year, with imports falling by 0.4% to €37.4bn. The US, Britain and Belgium accounted for 52% of total export value. Most of our imports came from Britain, the US, Germany and China.

Trade and Commerce Minister, Billy Kelleher, said the latest trade figures reflect Ireland’s sharply improving competiteveness. This is an impressive performance by our exporters, in what are extremely difficult trading circumstances globally,” he said, before adding: “The Government’s strategy of investing in an export-led economic recovery has produced results and we must ensure that this strategy is maintained.”

Bloxham Stockbrokers — which is anticipating Ireland’s full-year 2010 trade surplus to be above €40bn — had anticipated a trade surplus, for November, of around €4bn ahead of yesterday’s figures.

“Ireland’s external trade performance has been the one bright spot in the economy over the past year or so,” it said.

Pat Burke, partner with Grant Thornton, said: “Irish businesses are going to have to look abroad if they want to make a profit in 2011.”