Goodbody: Three years of housing supply exists

THREE years of housing supply exists, according to Goodbody stockbrokers, which predicts a two-speed market will eventually emerge.

Goodbody has challenged reports that there are 300,000 vacant houses in Ireland saying the number is closer to between 103,000 to 144,000.

Goodbody analyst Dermot O’Leary said the vacant houses “may not be in the right place”, with bigger oversupply issues in parts of the country.

“Ireland is still dealing with the legacy of the housing boom, but a two-speed market will emerge in the coming years with urban areas having less oversupply, like Dublin in particular, recovering first,” he said.

Last year there were just 26,820 house completions in Ireland, which is down 48% on the previous year. At the peak in 2006, almost 90,000 units were completed.

Research from NUI Maynooth found that there are now more than 300,000 houses lying empty around the country.

Last week Housing Minister Michael Finneran told the Cabinet there were between 100,000 and 140,000 houses lying empty.

Meanwhile property prices are expected to fall by a further 10% next year.

Research by found that the market could see some sectors showing signs of stabilisation in the second half of next year in line with a gradual improvement in the economic position of the country.

First-time buyers are also set to benefit further as houses become more affordable.

The report forecasts that private housing output will decline to 11,000 units nationally and new private housing commencements could fall as low as 6,000 this year. Asking prices fell by 14.6% nationally in 2009 with an 18.3% fall in Dublin.

Overall prices in the capital are now 31% below their peak levels with the average asking price in the capital now at €370,137.

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