IAWS took control of Swiss firm Hiestand earlier this month to form the world’s biggest maker of frozen baked goods.
Last year it transferred its animal-feed ingredients and other agribusiness activities into Origin but it remains the majority owner.
NCB said the tie-up between IAWS and Hiestand “raises the question of whether Aryzta will continue to hold a 71.4% stake in Origin”.
“We see Aryzta monetising this over time,” said NCB analyst Paul Meade.
NCB also said Aryzta will expand its global footprint into adjacent markets by leveraging its complementary product range, technologies, customer base and markets.
“This will also deliver significant cross selling and some synergy opportunities to boost profits. These benefits will more than offset the modest dilution impact from the issue of 10% extra shares in IAWS to Lion Capital,” said Mr Meade.
NCB also believe the risks associated with the merger are limited, given the respective track records of both IAWS and Hiestand.
“In addition, the high percentage of independents within their respective customer base and the lack of alternative suppliers will ensure Aryzta maintains strong pricing power to protect and grow its margins,” said Mr Meade.
NCB’s base case earnings estimates forecast growth of 10- 12%.
A spokesman for IAWS refused to comment on the report.