Ryanair passengers up 25% in Q1

RYANAIR passenger numbers increased 25% in the first quarter of 2006, with ancillary revenues expected to jump 75% to €76 million according to first-quarter forecasts for the airline.

The airline’s first quarter final results were published today. NCB Stockbrokers signalled earnings per share of 14.8 cent, 74% ahead of 2005.

Trading has benefited from Easter falling in April, as against March in 2005. The yield environment has also been positive, due to traffic growth and fuel surcharges levied by flag carriers.

Growth of 8% in average fares was projected, inclusive of the new checked baggage revenue stream, which came on line on March 16.

NCB expected ancillary revenues to outpace passenger growth and rise by 30% to €75.9m, or €7.11 per passenger. This represents an increase of 4.2% on the last quarter of 2005.

Costs are expected to be well contained, falling 5% per seat, excluding fuel. Fuel is forecast to rise 42% this year, though Ryanair is now hedged at $70 until October 2006.

Positive yields and cost cutting exercises at Europe’s largest airline have influenced NCB’s forecasts for first quarter results.

Summer trends, based on Ryanair’s June 6 update and EasyJet’s recent upgrade — yields of 17% in the first quarter — remain positive, while fuel is fixed and 85% of profit will be earned in the first half to September.

Baggage will yield circa 2 per passenger by the end of 2006.

EPS growth of 10% is expected up to March 2007. While fuel threatens a downside, yields such as baggage and cost performance will continue to create an upside for the company.

NCB expects high teens growth to resume to March 2008.