Survey forecasts further rise in inflation
The mean forecast of the seven economists surveyed was for a month-on-month rise in the consumer price index (CPI) of 0.3% for September, bringing the inflation rate to 2.7% year-on-year.
The statistics office will release the data tomorrow.
“Our main focus will be on the rate of inflation in the services sector which has accelerated since the end of 2003.
“The ‘core’ services CPI (ie excluding mortgages) is already up 3.3% in the year to date,” said Davy economist Rossa White.
Ireland’s CPI rose 0.6% in August to stand 2.6% higher than a year earlier as summer sales came to an end and fuel prices ticked higher. Economists expect consumer inflation to continue to trend upwards for the rest of the year and see the increase in the CPI at over 3% by December.
Impending rises in electricity and gas prices, coupled with a low base effect from last year, are expected to contribute to the rise.
“In the fourth quarter last year there were significant falls in food and insurance costs, for example, that are unlikely to be repeated,” said Oliver Mangan, chief bond economist at AIB Global Treasury.
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which is used for comparisons with other euro zone countries, is also expected to rise by 0.3% in September, bringing the annual rise to 2.7%.
That is above eurozone inflation levels for the month, which economists expect will be revised to 2.1% from an estimated 2.2% when final figures are published next week.
