David McNamara: Middle East ceasefire glimmer of hope despite failed peace talks

Will the shift in power in the Strait of Hormuz permanently dent trade flows through the key channel?

US vice president JD Vance, right, speaks after meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran on Sunday, April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan. The collapse of peace talks over the weekend has seen oil move back towards the $100 and European equities fall on Monday morning. Nevertheless, the ceasefire brings a glimmer hope that both side may be willing to reach an peace agreement in the coming weeks. 

The collapse of peace talks over the weekend has seen oil move back towards the $100 and European equities fall on Monday morning. Nevertheless, the ceasefire brings a glimmer hope that both side may be willing to reach an peace agreement in the coming weeks. 

With a tenuous ceasefire agreed by both sides in the Middle East conflict, markets initially experienced a massive relief rally at the weekend. Equity markets surged and oil prices saw one of the largest one-day falls in recent history, falling 13% to $93 per barrel, while natural gas prices also moved sharply lower. Monday then saw oil prices back on the rise.