Cancer rates could double by 2045 because of population growth and ageing, report finds

Population growth and ageing will contribute to an explosion in the number of cancer cases, potentially a doubling of numbers, between 2015 and 2045, if current rates continue to apply.

That’s the scenario outlined in the latest annual report from the National Cancer Registry (NCR) where both factors are already generating “a major increase” in the number of cancer cases diagnosed annually.

The report found:

• Between 2016-2018, about 41,075 new cancer cases were diagnosed each year, an average of 112 people every day.
• Between 2013-2015 an average of 8,875 people died life due to invasive cancer, about one person dying from cancer every hour.
• Prostate and female breast cancer were the most commonly diagnosed invasive cancers during 2016-2018.
• During 2014-2016, approx 14% of cancer cases, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, (NMSC) presented as emergencies at the time of diagnosis.

The report says emergency presentations “can result from a lack of awareness of symptoms in patients and is generally associated with more advanced stage”.

Some of the news is good - the number of cancer survivors is also expected to greatly increase - which NCR director Kerri Clough-Gorr said highlights the need to plan for their long-term support and follow-up need.

“We must go beyond our current capabilities…. to better understand the patient experience, including quality of life, disease progression and recurrence and long-term treatments,” Professor Clough-Gorr said.

The Irish Cancer Society (ICS) described the figures as a ‘wake-up call’ that must prompt immediate action.

CEO Averil Power said while the projections are stark, they need not become a reality.

“By improving our lifestyles and availing of free screening each of us can dramatically reduce our risk of getting cancer,” Ms Power said.

The report estimates that numbers of invasive cancers (excluding NMSC) have risen to about 22,640 cases diagnosed annually during 2016-2018 (12,080 males and 10,560 females), or 33,460 cases including all invasive cancers.

This represents almost a doubling of case-numbers since the registry was established over 25 years ago.

The proportion of the population most likely to be diagnosed with cancer, that aged 65-plus, has expanded by more than 50% in the last 25 years.

The report says significant improvements in cancer treatment, and earlier detection means the likelihood of surviving many forms of cancer continues to increase.

The current estimate is about 173,000 cancer survivors previously diagnosed with invasive cancer were alive at the end of 2016, excluding NMSC.

Based on population growth and ageing, numbers of cancers (excluding NMSC) are projected to increase to 43,000, a doubling overall.

However, Prof Clough Gorr said the overall increase by 2045 could be more modest - approximately 50% - if recent trends in some cancers (eg declines in male lung and prostate cancer rates) continue.

The NCR’s annual report, Cancer in Ireland 1994-2016 with estimates from 2016-2018, can be viewed at ncri.ie