Trump plan to end Ukraine war would involve ceding territory to Russia

Trump plan to end Ukraine war would involve ceding territory to Russia
President Donald Trump’s draft peace plan would see Russia take control of the eastern Donbas region (Evan Vucci/AP)

US president Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft obtained by The Associated Press.

The proposal, originating from negotiations between Washington and Moscow, appeared decidedly favourable to Russia, which started the war nearly four years ago by invading its neighbour.

If the past is anything to go by, it would seem untenable for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who has opposed Mr Trump’s previous calls for territorial concessions.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said his country would not concede territory to Russia (Kirsty Wigglesworth/PA)

A side agreement aims to satisfy Ukrainian security concerns by saying a future “significant, deliberate and sustained armed attack” by Russia would be viewed as “threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community”.

The agreement, which was detailed by a senior US official, does not obligate the US or European allies to intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, although it says they would “determine the measures necessary to restore security”.

Mr Trump’s push to end the war could drive a wedge between himself and European leaders, who are likely to oppose any agreement that could be seen as rewarding Russian president Vladimir Putin for his aggression, leaving him emboldened rather than defeated.

For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining Nato but would also prevent the alliance’s future expansion.

Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views Nato as a threat.

Mr Putin would also gain ground he has been unable to win on the battlefield. Under the draft, Moscow would hold all the eastern Donbas region, even though approximately 14% still remains in Ukrainian hands.

Ukraine’s military, currently at roughly 880,000 troops, would be reduced to 600,000.

The proposal opens the door to lifting sanctions on Russia and returning it to what was formerly known as the Group of Eight, which includes many of the world’s biggest economies.

Russia was suspended from the annual gathering in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea that is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine.

US army secretary Dan Driscoll, right, was in Kyiv on Thursday (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

The US team began drawing up the plan soon after US special envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Rustem Umerov, a top adviser to Mr Zelensky, according to a senior administration official.

The official added that Mr Umerov agreed to the majority of the plan, after making several modifications, and then presented it to Mr Zelensky.

US army secretary Dan Driscoll was also in Kyiv on Thursday and discussed the latest draft with Mr Zelensky, according to a senior administration official.

Mr Zelensky offered a measured statement on social media about it but did not directly speak to the substance of the proposal.

“Our teams — of Ukraine and the United States — will work on the provisions of the plan to end the war. We are ready for constructive, honest and swift work,” he wrote.

Under the proposal, Russia would commit to making no future attacks, something the White House views as a concession.

Rescue workers clear rubble at the site of a residential building heavily damaged by a Russian strike on Ternopil, Ukraine, earlier in the week (Vlad Kravchuk/AP)

In addition, 100 billion US dollars (£76.44 billion) in frozen Russian assets would be dedicated to rebuilding Ukraine.

But handing over territory to Russia would be deeply unpopular in Ukraine. It also would be illegal under Ukraine’s constitution. Mr Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out such a possibility.

Russia would also be allowed to keep half of the power generated by Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, which it captured from Ukraine early during the war.

The draft calls for a Peace Council that Mr Trump will oversee.

The council is an idea that Mr Trump snatched from his lengthy peace plan aimed at bringing about a permanent end to war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

If either Ukraine or Russia violated the truce once enacted, it would face sanctions.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas suggested the draft would be too favourable towards Moscow (Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP)

As reports about the draft emerged, blindsided European diplomats insisted they and Ukraine must be consulted.

European leaders have already been alarmed this year by indications that Mr Trump’s administration might be side-lining them and Mr Zelensky in its push to stop the fighting.

Mr Trump’s at-times conciliatory approach to Mr Putin has fuelled these concerns, but Mr Trump adopted a tougher line last month when he announced heavy sanctions on Russia’s vital oil sector that came into force on Friday.

“For any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board,” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said at the start of a meeting in Brussels of the 27-nation bloc’s foreign ministers.

She also suggested that the draft would be too favourable towards Moscow.

“We haven’t heard of any concessions on the Russian side,” Ms Kallas said.

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