Russian space probe set to crash to Earth

A failed Russian probe designed to travel to a moon of Mars but stuck in Earth orbit will come crashing down within hours, the Russian space agency said today.

Roscosmos said the unmanned Phobos-Ground will crash between 16.41pm and 21.05pm Irish Time.

It could crash anywhere along the route of its next few orbits, which would include Europe, southeast Asia, Australia and South America. The US, Canada and much of Russia are outside the risk zone.

A large part of each orbit is over water, and scientists have estimated that the risks of the probe crashing into any populated areas are minimal. Thousands of pieces of derelict space vehicles orbit Earth, occasionally posing danger to astronauts and satellites in orbit, but as far as is known, no one has ever been hurt by falling space debris.

At 14.9 tons, the Phobos-Ground is one of the heaviest pieces of space junk ever to fall on Earth, and one of the most toxic. The bulk of its weight is a load of 12 tons of highly toxic rocket fuel intended for the long journey to the Martian moon of Phobos. It has been left unused as the probe got stuck in orbit around Earth shortly after its November 9 launch.

Roscosmos predicts that only between 20 and 30 fragments of the Phobos probe with a total weight of up to 440lbs will survive the re-entry and plummet to Earth. It said all of the fuel will burn up entirely in the atmosphere.

The €120m Phobos-Ground was Russia’s most expensive and the most ambitious space mission since Soviet times. The spacecraft was intended to land on the crater-dented, potato-shaped Martian moon, collect soil samples and fly them back to Earth, giving scientists precious materials that could shed more light on the genesis of the solar system.

Russia’s space chief has acknowledged the Phobos-Ground mission was ill-prepared, but said that Roscosmos had to give it the go-ahead so as not to miss the limited Earth-to-Mars launch window.