Afghan fraud probe strips Karzai of votes

A run-off in the disputed Afghanistan presidential race appeared more likely today after President Hamid Karzai was stripped of hundreds of thousands of votes by UN-backed electoral fraud investigators.

With the revised figures Mr Karzai is thought to fall short of the 50% needed to avoid facing a fresh ballot against rival Abdullah Abdullah.

But it was unclear if the country’s own election commission would accept the international observers’ verdict and call a fresh round of voting in the war-stricken country.

Meanwhile, White House officials indicated that the current confusion could delay a decision over a possible troop surge in the region.

Washington is felt unwilling to announce additional soldiers – possibly numbering 40,000 – until after a stable government is formed.

Initial results from the August election indicated that Mr Karzai had held off the challenge from Mr Abdullah, the country’s former foreign minister.

However, critics claimed ballot box-stuffing and intimidation swelled the incumbent president’s tally to above the 50% mark.

Mr Abdullah’s campaign spokesman Fazel Sancharaki welcomed the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission’s ruling today, adding that it showed that Mr Karzai’s share of the vote was 48% – below that needed to claim victory.

However there were doubts that Afghanistan’s own Independent Election Commission (IEC), which makes the final decision on the ballot, would accept the report.

“This is a step forward, now it is up to the Independent Election Commission to announce the final results,” Mr Sancharaki said.

He said if the IEC refused to accept the findings of UN-backed observers it would be “another illegal action”.

Mr Karzai’s campaign spokesman Waheed Omar said: “I don’t think we can make any judgment based on the figures announced today.”

Some close to the president’s inner circle have questioned the authority of the UN-backed fraud investigators in the recount.

The mess caused by the disputed election result is likely to have a knock-on effect on the timescale of President Barack Obama’s evolving Afghanistan strategy.

The US leader has been under pressure to respond to a report by General Stanley McChrystal, the US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, which calls for a major troop surge to turn around fortunes in the flagging war.

The document has not been made public, but a number of leaks have disclosed that the commander has outlined three options, ranging from an additional 10,000 to 15,000 troops to a swell of 80,000 fighters.

General McChrystal himself is thought to be lobbying heavily for a surge of 40,000 soldiers.

However, over the weekend, senior aides indicated that Mr Obama will not commit to more troops until he is convinced of a credible and effective central government in Afghanistan.

In a round of interviews yesterday White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel stressed the importance of having a strong government in place.

“It would be reckless to make a decision on US troop level if, in fact, you haven’t done a thorough analysis of whether, in fact, there’s an Afghan partner ready to fill that space that the US troops would create and become a true partner in governing,” he said.

An added complication to the electoral procedure is the incoming winter in Afghanistan.

If a run-off does not take place by mid-November it risks having to be put off until the spring. Heavy snowfall could block mountain passes, making it harder for would-be voters to get to the polls.