Poll reflects hopes for Obama fading to reality

The hope and optimism that washed over the US in the opening months of Barack Obama’s presidency is fading, according to a new poll.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll shows that a majority of Americans are back to thinking their country is heading in the wrong direction after a fleeting period in which more thought it was on the right track.

Mr Obama still has a solid 55% approval rating – better than Bill Clinton and about even with George Bush six months into their presidencies – but there are growing doubts about whether he can succeed at some of the biggest items on his to-do list.

And there is a growing sense that he is trying to tackle too much too soon.

The number of people who think Mr Obama can improve the economy is down a sobering 19 percentage points from the euphoric days just before his inauguration. The same reaction was found for expectations about creating jobs.

Also down significantly was the share of people who think he can reduce the deficit, remove troops from Iraq and improve respect for the US around the world, all slipping 15 points.

On overhauling health care, a signature issue for Mr Obama, hopes for success are down a lesser six points.

“I think it’s just reality,” said Sandy Smith, a 48-year-old public relations worker from Los Angeles. “He’s not Superman, right?”

It is not unusual for approval ratings to slide once presidents actually get to work. They are pulled down by things going on in the real world, by people who do not agree with the ways they are addressing problems, and by criticism from political opponents.

In Mr Obama’s case, the problems he is confronting domestically and internationally are legion and his ability to blame them on his predecessor is fading.

Challenges still abound in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unemployment, at 7.6% in January, hit 9.5% in June and is expected to keep rising well into next year. Almost 4% of homeowners with mortgages are in foreclosure, and an additional 8% are at least a month behind on payments – the highest levels since the Great Depression.

The president is deep into the debate over how to overhaul the US health care system and people are nervous about how their own insurance could be affected.

Mr Obama’s critics are accusing him of conducting a risky “grand experiment” that will hurt the economy and could force millions to drop their current health coverage.

The poll shows slippage too, in how people view the president personally, although he is still well regarded. About two thirds now think he understands the problems of ordinary Americans, down from 81% in January. Sixty-nine per cent think he is a strong leader, down from 78% before the inauguration.

In an interview on The CBS Evening News last night, Mr Obama linked high poll numbers to inaction.

“The easiest way to keep your poll numbers up, and to garner good press, is to do not that much here in this town, and not to cause a lot of controversy,” he said.

“And there’s some people who would probably advise that that’s the approach you should take. But that’s not why the American people sent me here. They sent me here to solve problems.”

It is not just Mr Obama who’s feeling the drag. Approval of Congress – already low – has fallen, slipping six percentage points to 32%.

Overall, the number of people who think the country is going in the wrong direction hit 54% in the latest AP-GfK poll, up from 46% in June.

Perhaps most troubling for Mr Obama may be where he is losing ground. His approval rating was down nine points among Americans overall but 20% among independents. Similarly, the increase in those who think the country is heading in the wrong direction came mostly from independents and Democrats.

Dissatisfaction among independents grew disproportionately on Mr Obama’s handling of a range of issues, including the economy, taxes, unemployment, the environment and more.

Independents are “the ones to watch”, according to Professor Robert Shapiro, a Columbia University expert on public opinion.

“The Republicans were more pessimistic from the outset. The Democrats are going to be more resistant to negative information,” he said.

Overall, Mr Obama still can feel good about a 55% approval rating, Prof Shapiro said, but “the fact that it is on the downswing is something to be concerned about. That’s going to affect how members of Congress, and in particular people in his own party, may respond to him”.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted from July 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. It involved phone interviews with 1,006 adults.