Flu deaths ebb - but mutation feared

Mexico said a swine flu epidemic appears to be easing, but today urged citizens not to let their guard down against a virus that has killed 19 people and is spreading across Asia and Europe.

Experts warned the virus could mutate and come back with a vengeance.

With no suspected swine flu deaths since Wednesday and fewer people turning up at hospitals with virus symptoms, Mexican officials were guardedly optimistic that the worst was over in the outbreak’s epicentre. Cases outside Mexico suggested the new swine flu strain is weaker than feared. But governments moved quickly anyway to ban flights and prepare quarantine plans.

In the first known reported case of the new, mutated virus infecting another species, pigs in the province of Alberta have become infected and are under quarantine. They apparently got the virus from a Canadian farm worker who recently visited Mexico and got sick with swine flu, Canadian officials said last night.

They told a press conference in Ottawa that the pigs do not pose a food safety risk, adding that the traveller recovered from the swine flu and the pigs are “well on their way to recovery”. The outbreak occurred on a single farm, where about 10% of 2,200 pigs showed a fever and loss of appetite. No pigs have died from the virus, officials said.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said it is too early to declare victory.

The World Health Organisation also decided against a full pandemic alert, but that does not mean people can relax, said Dr Mike Ryan, WHO’s global alert and response director.

“These viruses mutate, these viruses change, these viruses can further reassort with other genetic material, with other viruses,” he said. “So it would be imprudent at this point to take too much reassurance” from the small number of deaths.

“We have seen times where things appear to be getting better and then get worse again,” said Dr Anne Schuchat, the US agency’s interim science and public health deputy director. “I think in Mexico we may be holding our breath for some time.”

The global caseload was 763 and growing – the vast majority in Mexico, the US and Canada. Costa Rica reported its first confirmed swine flu case – the first in Latin America outside Mexico.

Swine flu cases have been confirmed in 18 countries so far – including Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region – and experts believe the actual spread is much wider than the numbers suggest.

US President Barack Obama urged caution yesterday.

“This is a new strain of the flu virus, and because we haven’t developed an immunity to it, it has more potential to cause us harm,” Mr Obama said. Later, he spoke with Mexican President Felipe Calderon for about 20 minutes to share information.

What started as a swine flu outbreak more than a week ago in Mexico quickly ballooned to a global health threat, with the WHO declaring a pandemic was imminent.

Some Mexicans have criticised their government for reacting too slowly to the outbreak at first, and now for overreacting in ordering a five-day, nationwide shutdown of all non-essential government and private business.

Responding to the attacks, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said: “It’s absurd to think that Mexico was putting on a show. I think it’s preferable, at a certain moment, to take advanced measures and succeed in containing the problem than to not take them and ask, ’Why didn’t we take them?”’

Mexico’s last confirmed swine flu death occurred Tuesday, and the last suspected death came on Wednesday, said Pablo Kuri, an epidemiologist and adviser to Cordova.

Mr Cordova said hospitals are now handling fewer patients with swine flu symptoms, a sign that the disease is presently not very contagious. Mexican investigators who visited 280 relatives of victims found only four had the virus.

Many of the sick around the world were people who had visited Mexico, including 13 of Britain’s 15 cases.

Here are the latest key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organisation, and government officials:

:: Deaths: 19 confirmed in Mexico and one confirmed in US, a 21-month-old boy from Mexico who died in Texas.

:: Confirmed sickened worldwide, 809: 454 in Mexico; 197 in US; 85 in Canada; 15 in Spain; 15 in Britain; six in Germany; four in New Zealand; two in Israel, France and South Korea; one each in Costa Rica, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Hong Kong, Denmark and the Netherlands.

:: US confirmed cases: New York 50; Texas 28; California 24; Arizona 17; South Carolina 13; Delaware 10; Massachusetts eight; New Jersey seven; Maine six; Wisconsin three; Ohio three; Indiana three; Illinois three; Kansas two; Colorado two; Virginia two; Michigan two; Missouri two; Connecticut two; Florida two; New Hampshire one; Utah one; Rhode Island one; Iowa one; Kentucky one; Minnesota one; Nebraska one; Nevada one.

:: President Barack Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon spoke for 20 minutes Saturday by phone “to share information about each country’s efforts to limit the spread” of the flu strain, the White House says.

:: The World Health Organisation says it has sent 2.4 million treatments of anti-flu drug Tamiflu to 72 developing countries, taking the drugs from a stockpile donated by Roche Holding AG.

:: US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention says about a third of the confirmed US cases of swine flu are people who had been to Mexico and likely picked up the infection there.

:: Mexico has taken extraordinary measures against the epidemic, ordering all nonessential government and private businesses to shut down for five days.

:: All 176 weekend soccer games in Mexico – from the first division to the lowly third – were shuttered to fans. The games went on behind closed doors.

:: Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa complained that China had isolated several Mexicans without reason – and urged Mexicans not to travel to China until the situation was resolved.

:: The UN and World Trade Organisation say there’s no justification for any anti-pork trade measures as a result of the swine flu epidemic since there is no evidence the virus is spread by food.

:: Pigs on a Canadian farm have been infected with the new swine flu virus - apparently by a farm worker back from Mexico – and are under quarantine, officials say. It is the first known case of pigs having the virus.

:: US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Canada has taken the necessary precautions to prevent the spread of the disease. He said there have been no reports of the virus in US pigs and noted the sick Canadian swine have been quarantined.

:: The US government says schools with confirmed cases should close for at least 14 days because children can be contagious for seven to 10 days from when they get sick. More than 430 US schools had closed, affecting about 245,000 children in 18 states.

:: WHO says it will stop using term “swine flu” to avoid confusion over danger posed by pigs, and will instead refer to virus by its scientific name: “H1N1 influenza A.”

:: Airlines have reduced or cancelled service to Mexico.

:: Singapore announced a week-long quarantine for anyone arriving from Mexico.

:: Hong Kong, where severe acute respiratory syndrome killed 299 in 2003, ordered a week-long quarantine of a downtown hotel where a Mexican tourist was confirmed to have the illness, trapping 350 guests and employees inside.

:: The US Meat Export Federation, which represents pork and beef interests abroad, estimates that US pork exports have dropped about 10 % since the swine flu scare started.