Cubans look to 'Fidel Lite' for more freedom

Cubans were focusing today on what acting president Raul Castro’s government would bring once his brother Fidel formally stepped down as the country’s all-powerful leader.

Their expectations, already raised by Raul’s talk of “structural changes” and “big decisions” to come, could not be higher.

Many are asking if he will let more people open businesses, own homes and even travel abroad, but, given that Raul is already 76, many wonder whether it will fall to a new generation of leaders to fulfil or frustrate their dreams of prosperity.

As acting president, Raul has only hinted at reforms, a reticence many see as a sign of respect for his more doctrinaire older brother.

While hoping that Raul and his likely number two, Carlos Lage, will advocate for change, Cubans wonder how that will fly with Fidel, 81, who made it clear yesterday that he was not going away, even though he is stepping down as president on Sunday.

“There has to be some change, more freedom with Raul,” said Andres, 63, who like many Cubans would not give his last name for fear of reprisal when talking about the Castro brothers.

“The other one always nipped that off at the bud.”

Fidel’s resignation, announced yesterday, should give Raul more autonomy than he has had as the government’s caretaker since Fidel was sidelined by intestinal surgery in July 2006.

The younger Castro raised expectations of openings in the state-controlled economy with his reported fascination with Chinese-style capitalism, calls for unspecified “structural changes” and acknowledgement that government wages averaging £10 a month do not satisfy basic needs.

He also encouraged Cubans to open a fearless and critical debate, as long as they remembered that the final decisions would be made by the island’s Communist leaders.

“That way we reach decisions, and I’m talking about big decisions,” he told student leaders in December 2006.

Many Cubans want to hear more such talk from their next leader. Inspired by Raul, some leading Cuban cultural figures have called recently for dropping onerous visa requirements and other limits on their freedoms, a message that resonates with ordinary Cubans.

“This is what we needed. I hope to God people have more freedom – the freedom to have opinions and always speak their minds,” 37-year-old Lydis Perez said after dropping her son off at school. “People talk in the hallways or the back rooms. ... There’s a lot of fear.”

Fidel Castro, however, insisted in his resignation letter that he would not disappear or stay quiet if he saw his revolution going astray.

“This is not my farewell to you,” he wrote. “My only wish is to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas. I shall continue to write under the title, ’Reflections of Comrade Fidel’. It will be another weapon you can count on. Perhaps my voice will be heard.”

As the Council of State’s first vice president, Raul Castro has been his brother’s constitutionally designated successor for decades, so the big question is who will take his place as number two on Sunday when the National Assembly selects Cuba’s new leadership.

A leading candidate is Mr Lage, the de-facto prime minister, who at 56 is a full generation younger than the Castros. He is among the most experienced leaders in a power structure dominated by septuagenarian former rebels, and he has built a reputation as a reformer.

A less likely possibility could emerge from a handful of leaders in their 30s and 40s, such as foreign minister Felipe Perez Roque, whose Communist fervour earned them the collective nickname of “Young Talibans”.

While no less loyal to the elder Castro, Mr Lage was the architect of reforms that saved the island from economic collapse in the early 1990s. His moves allowed foreign investment in state enterprises, a measure of self-employment, and legal use of the US dollar.

Raul Castro appears to get along with Lage, who is a quiet, pragmatic organiser like himself, but both say any change will not be at the expense of socialism.

Raul has also championed the concept of closer ties to the US, offering again and again to discuss normalising relations with Washington. But the Bush administration ruled that out yesterday, deriding Raul Castro as “Fidel Lite”.

That means that the nearly five-decade US embargo of Cuba will remain in place for the known future – frustrating both Cubans and many Americans who see much potential in trade with the island, not only for business but as a catalyst for change.