No clear winner in Croatian election

Croatia’s ruling conservatives and opposition centre-left Social were virtually tied in parliamentary elections today, leaving the make up of the future government unclear, exit polls and preliminary results showed.

The two key rivals both appeared short of ensuring the 77 deputies required, and the winner would depend on post election dealmaking.

Preliminary results released by the state-run Electoral Commission after about 12% of votes were counted showed Prime Minister Ivo Sanader’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union projected to get 60 deputies. The Social Democrats, or SDP, would get 53, according to initial results.

Two reliable exit polls showed the Social Democrats slightly ahead, with 61 deputies. Sanader’s party, known by initials HDZ, was projected to get 57 seats.

President Stipe Mesic, who will give a mandate to form a government to the coalition or party that guarantees parliament support, said that, “obviously, both parties have potential coalition partners. We will see who will be more successful in negotiations”.

The Social Democrats can count on two certain allies, but would still need to woo more support to rule.

Sanader is expected to get support from Croats living abroad, which could eventually become crucial. The number of seats reserved for expatriates depends on turnout, but it is expected to be five – all going to HDZ.

The coalition of Liberals and the Peasants Party, as well as eight minority representatives, could also be kingmakers.

“We are optimists. The official results will show that we are the winners,” said the Social Democrats’ would-be prime minister, Ljubo Jurcic. “I am the future prime minister of Croatia.”

HDZ was also triumphant. “We will win,” said Ivan Suker, the party’s senior official and economics minister. “The Croatian prime minister in the next four years will be Ivo Sanader.”

Many people blame Sanader for failing to improve living standards or clamp down on corruption.

Croatia’s pro-Western course is not at stake in this election, however. The country is negotiating EU membership and could become the bloc’s 28th member in 2010; next year, NATO is expected to invite Croatia to join the alliance; and on January 1, Croatia will become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council - all moves both parties back.

Both also want to maintain good relations with the United States, and on foreign policy, “there is no difference” between the two key rivals, said Davor Gjenero, a political analyst.

But Croatians “want to be richer now,” so voting for the Social Democrats may be more of a protest vote against Sanader, he said.

Sanader’s party – then run by nationalists – ruled for a decade until the Social Democrats seized power in 2000 to turn Croatia to the West. In 2003, the HDZ returned to government, with Sanader purging the party of nationalists and boosting the market economy to continue Croatia’s pro-Western makeover.

The Social Democrats are promising an economic boom. Led by 41-year-old Zoran Milanovic and would-be premier Jurcic, the party is offering Croatians fresh faces and untainted politics.

The party insists it would smash corruption, claiming Sanader’s party will never follow through on promises on corruption because graft is “its way of ruling.”