Opposition ahead in Croatian election

Exit polls tonight showed the opposition centre-left Social Democrats slightly ahead of the ruling conservatives in Croatian parliamentary elections, but neither party appeared to have won outright.

One poll gave the Social Democrats 34.6% of votes, and another 36.6%.

The ruling Croatian Democratic Union was 1.5 to 3 percentage points behind in two reliable exit polls, announced by the state-run Croatian Television and private Nova TV.

Surveys conducted before today’s poll showed that Prime Minister Ivo Sanader’s Croatian Democratic Union was level with – or trailing – the opposition centre-left Social Democrats, as Croatians blame Mr Sanader for failing to improve their standards of living or put corrupt officials behind bars.

Unlike in the past, Croatia’s pro-Western course is not at stake this time - the nation’s membership of the EU and Nato tops both parties’ agenda. Both also want to keep good relations with the US. The once-strong nationalists are out of mainstream politics.

In foreign policy, “there is no difference” between the two key rivals, said Davor Gjenero, a political analyst.

After a decade-long rule by the Croatian Democratic Union, or HDZ – then a nationalist party – Croatia turned to the West in 2000, when the Social Democrats took power. In 2003, the HDZ returned to power, but Mr Sanader purged its nationalists and boosted the market economy to continue Croatia’s pro-Western makeover.

The country of 4.5 million, which in 1991 fought an independence war with its rebel Serbs, is currently negotiating EU membership and could become the bloc’s 28th member in 2010. Next year, Nato is expected to invite it to join. Croatia will become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council on January 1.

At home, the economy has recovered from war, wages have gone up and Croatians can buy and sell shares. Western cars, clothes and plasma TVs are not out of reach anymore, but both the citizens and the state spend borrowed money, raising internal and foreign debt.

People “are convinced that they do not live well enough” and “want to be richer now,” so voting for the Social Democrats is more of a protest vote against Mr Sanader, Mr Gjenero said.

The Social Democrats promise to boost industry, stamp out unemployment - currently at 14% – and raise salaries, now averaging 4,900 kuna (€583) a month.

With its new leader, 41-year-old Zoran Milanovic, and the would-be premier, Ljubo Jurcic, it offers fresh, untainted faces.

The party also insists it would smash corruption – something the EU says Croatia must do if it wants to join – claiming that Sanader’s party would never do it because graft is “its way of ruling”.

Mr Sanader claims his government has achieved economic growth, created more jobs and developed education and infrastructure. He vows to do more and pledges “zero tolerance” for corruption.

In the event that neither party has a majority, the Social Democrats can seek allies in two or three leftist parties. Sanader may need the votes of Croats living abroad to stay in power.

About 4.48 million voters – including 400,000 Croats living abroad – will choose up to 160 parliament deputies.