Croatia goes to the polls

Croatians were voting in closely contested parliamentary elections today, choosing between the ruling conservatives set to steer the ex-Yugoslav country into the European Union and leftist opposition.

All surveys show that Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's Croatian Democratic Union is level with - or even trailing - the opposition centre-left Social Democrats, as Croatians blame Sanader for failing to improve their standards of living or put corrupt officials behind bars.

Neither party, however, is expected to win outright, and the new government could be known only after post-election dealmaking.

Unlike in the past, Croatia's pro-Western course is not at stake this time - the nation's membership of the EU and NATO tops both parties' agenda. Both also want to keep good relations with the US. The once-strong nationalists are out of mainstream politics.

In foreign policy, "there is no difference" between the two key rivals, said Davor Gjenero, a political analyst.

After a decade-long rule by the Croatian Democratic Union, or HDZ - then a nationalist party - Croatia turned to the West in 2000, when the Social Democrats took power.

In 2003, the HDZ returned to power, but Sanader purged its nationalists and boosted the market economy to continue Croatia's pro-Western makeover.

The country of 4.5 million, which in 1991 fought an independence war with its rebel Serbs, is currently negotiating EU membership and could become the bloc's 28th member in 2010.

Next year, NATO is expected to invite it to join. Croatia will become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council on January 1.

At home, the economy has recovered from war, wages have gone up and Croatians can buy and sell shares. Western cars, clothes and plasma TVs are not out of reach anymore, but both the citizens and the state spend borrowed money, raising internal and foreign debt.

People "are convinced that they do not live well enough" and "want to be richer now", so voting for the Social Democrats is more of a protest vote against Sanader, Gjenero said.

The Social Democrats promise to boost industry, stamp out unemployment - currently at 14% - and raise salaries, now averaging 4,900 kuna (€582) a month.

With its new leader, 41-year-old Zoran Milanovic, and the would-be premier, Ljubo Jurcic, it offers fresh, untainted faces.

The party also insists it would smash corruption - something the EU says Croatia must do if it wants to join - claiming that Sanader's party would never do it because graft is "its way of ruling".

Sanader claims his government has achieved economic growth, created more jobs and developed education and infrastructure. He vows to do more and pledges "zero tolerance" for corruption.

First official results are expected later tonight.

In the event that neither party has a majority, the Social Democrats can seek allies in two or three leftist parties. Sanader may need the votes of Croats living abroad to stay in power.

About 4.48 million voters - including 400,000 Croats living abroad - will choose up to 160 parliament deputies.