Yushchenko braced for vote disaster

Ukrainians began voting today in an early parliamentary election meant to bring an end to a months-long political stand off between the nation’s two feuding leaders.

President Viktor Yushchenko’s party appeared set for a dismal showing in the vote, with polls predicting the bloc led by rival Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych would get the largest share of votes.

But Yushchenko is pinning his hopes on a last-minute alliance with former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko – a partnership that could give their parties control of parliament if together they get more votes than Yanukovych’s bloc.

Forging a coalition with Tymoshenko, however, could mean weeks of negotiation and Yanukovych has signalled that he would not give up power easily.

Voting began at 7am (5am Irish time) and was to end at 10pm (8pm Irish time). Ukraine has 37.5 million registered voters.

Polls predict Yanukovych’s Party of Regions will receive the most votes, with Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko in second place. Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self-defence, hampered by voter disappointment with his failure to fulfil reformist promises that brought him to power in 2005, is expected to wind up third.

Yanukovych, a 57-year-old former metal worker, has undergone a dramatic transformation since his humiliating defeat in the 2004 presidential race, when Ukrainians took to the streets in massive protests against election fraud dubbed the Orange Revolution, paving the way for Yushchenko’s victory in a court-ordered rerun.

But Yanukovych made a stunning comeback in the March 2006 parliamentary elections when his party won the most votes, propelling him back into premiership. He sought to change his image, casting himself as a democrat and preaching compromise and stability.

Yanukovych, who draws his support from Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east and south, fiercely resisted Yushchenko’s April decision to dissolve parliament and call new elections after the president accused him of seeking to usurp power. Yanukovych grudgingly agreed to today’s vote, but has hinted he would accept only one outcome: his victory.

He has accused Yushchenko and Tymoshenko’s parties of preparing widespread falsifications, and warned he could organise protests similar to those during the Orange Revolution. His supporters warned they would erect a giant stage and tent camp on the same central Kiev square that was the epicentre of the protests three years ago.

Raisa Bohatyryova, a leading member of Yanukovych’s party, said on Friday that if it judges the vote fraudulent, Ukraine could end up with duelling parliaments and Cabinets and a campaign for early presidential elections.

In the Orange camp, Yushchenko, 53, has struggled with voter disillusionment and a loss of support among many voters now backing Tymoshenko, the telegenic Orange Revolution heroine known here simply as Yulia.

He and the 46-year-old Tymoshenko, known for the flaxen braid wrapped on her head, parted ways after he fired her from a seven-month stint as prime minister in 2005. Their two parties lost a chance to form a coalition following last year’s parliamentary elections, sowing even further disillusionment among liberal voters.

While Yushchenko has been weakened by Yanukovych, Tymoshenko has emerged as a fiery opposition crusader and has been able to woo many of his supporters. In a last-minute move to consolidate the Orange camp, Yushchenko met with Tymoshenko earlier this week, kissing her hand and vowing that their parties would form a coalition.

Yushchenko made the same pledge in a televised speech to the nation last night.

“I believe in the unity and the victory of the Ukrainian democracy,” Yushchenko said. “The issue is very simple: either you will vote for changes or your vote will be claimed by the past, by those who are trying to split us.”

Tymoshenko, who has long said that reuniting the Orange team was the only chance at implementing reforms and integrating with the West, hailed Yushchenko’s move.

Yushchenko himself has appeared somewhat out of touch with the electorate. At a meeting with voters in the village of Bilostok in western Ukraine, his traditional support base, earlier in the week the president lectured his audience on economic theory and showered them with statistics for 40 minutes. Many in the crowd yawned, and a member of his own delegation briefly dozed off.

In sharp contrast with Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, whose campaign trail anecdotes drew laughs, cheers and applause, Yushchenko was met with silence. Only a handful of people clapped as Yushchenko spoke in a monotonous voice.

Yushchenko’s party’s election campaign has disappointed many. Its central message, a pledge to strip lawmakers of parliamentary immunity, has failed to resonate with voters preoccupied with bread-and-butter issues such as their incomes and bills.