Bush and Blair to chart new directions in Iraq

US President George Bush is meeting British Prime Minister Tony Blair today as the American leader faces urgent pressure to find a fresh strategy in Iraq following a scathing bi-partisan commission report that says his war policies have failed and “time is running out”.

The Iraq Study Group’s report said the situation in Iraq was “grave and deteriorating” after nearly four years of bloodshed and more than 2,900 American deaths. The report gave weight to the president’s talks with Blair, his closest ally in the unpopular war.

Bush, possibly with counsel from Blair, could embrace some or all 79 of the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations. The president also could ignore them and write his own based on internal reviews being done at the Pentagon, State Department and the White House. One thing even Bush knows he can’t do is keep using the same old play book in Iraq.

“It’s clear that the present situation is not one that could be sustained or accepted,” said White House press secretary Tony Snow.

Bush is also gaining a new defence secretary. Yesterday, the Senate confirmed Robert Gates to replace Donald Rumsfeld as defence secretary, with both Democrats and Republicans portraying him as the man to help overhaul Bush’s Iraq policies.

The Iraq panel’s recommendations ranged from gradually withdrawing US combat forces during the next year to increasing the training of Iraqi security forces to enlisting diplomatic help from Iraq’s neighbours – not only to resolve problems in Iraq but to find an end to the long-running conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

The White House was cautious not to reject any of the group’s ideas outright and vowed that Bush would entertain suggestions from all political circles before charting a new way forward.

The president already has rejected some of the panel’s ideas, such as having direct talks with Iran and Syria. The administration continues to insist that Iran verifiably suspend uranium enrichment before the US would start direct talks, although Snow left the door open for discussions through an outside group.

“There’s some very good ideas in there,” Bush said about the report after meeting yesterday afternoon with politicians. “Not all of us around the table agree with every idea, but we do agree that it shows that bipartisan consensus on important issues is possible.”

When a reporter asked whether Bush was capable of making dramatic changes in his war plan, Snow said: “Well, you’re assuming that the president has to pull U-turns. I’m not sure I agree.”

Democrats urged just that.

“I’m encouraged,” said Democratic Congresswoman Jane Harman, “and I feel the stay-the-course strategy is officially dead.”

“The American people have spoken,” said incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group has spoken. They have all demanded a change of course in Iraq, and the Bush administration must listen.”

Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, has said Bush would make his decision within weeks.

Time is not on Bush’s side.

“We believe that the situation in Iraq today is very, very serious,” said James Baker, the Republican former secretary of state who led the panel jointly with Democratic former Congressman Lee Hamilton. “We do not know if it can be turned around.”

While the panel believed that a stable, democratic Iraq was still possible, its pessimistic assessment of the situation contrasted with Bush’s upbeat prediction that the US-led coalition was on the road to victory.

“We’re winning, and we will win, unless we leave before the job is done,” Bush said at a White House news conference on October 25.

The White House insists Bush will not outsource his decision-making on Iraq, yet the changing political landscape makes it difficult for him not to embrace or – at least seriously consider – opposing views.

“The politics have shifted so this report now becomes the default position for many in the public and many in political life,” said Jon Alterman, a former State Department official who specialised in the Middle East.

“The president now isn’t the one defining the terms of the debate. He’s responding to a debate that others have framed, and a debate that others have framed on some terms that he has said are unacceptable.

“What I think is striking is that the president has said that defeat is not an option,” said Alterman, now director of Mideast programmes at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “And what this report says is that defeat is a real possibility.”