Palestinians face humanitarian crisis

Western peacemakers were to meet today to consider how, or whether, to help Palestinians out of their financial crisis, with growing evidence that sanctions against the Hamas-led government are causing grinding poverty that could ignite violent rage.

On the eve of the meeting, the World Bank warned that a humanitarian crisis in the West Bank and Gaza is rapidly approaching, and deadly street clashes erupted in Gaza.

Still, Hamas refuses to moderate its violent ideology, and the world is not calling off its crippling economic boycott. Moderate President Mahmoud Abbas is caught in the middle, trying to keep Hamas in check, but not powerful enough to force the militants out of office or call new elections.

There’s little time to find a solution. The Hamas-led government is broke because of the international aid cut-off, increasingly unable to provide basic services.

Some 165,000 government workers, who provide for one-third of the Palestinians, have not been paid for the past two months, and savings are dwindling quickly.

“We are expecting the situation to explode at any time,” said Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza.

Yet Hamas dismisses Western demands that it recognise Israel and renounce violence.

Hamas fears an about-face would hurt it politically by making it look weak and unprincipled, said pollster Nader Said of the West Bank’s Bir Zeit University.

The militant group’s exiled leaders, beholden to hard-line states Iran and Syria, have also crushed any compromise ideas floated by Hamas leaders in the West Bank and Gaza.

For now, most Palestinians blame the West and Abbas for the crisis, and believe the new democratically elected government is being treated unfairly by the international community, said the pollster.

With public opinion on its side, Hamas is standing tough. ”Even if we fail (as a government), we have nothing to lose,” said Abu Zuhri. He said pressure on Hamas would only intensify the Arab world’s anger against the West.

In this climate, Abbas has to tread carefully.

Even though he is the leader of the Fatah Party, Hamas’ main political rival, Abbas has also tried to portray himself as being above the political fray.

In this dual role as party chief and president, he has stripped the Hamas government of some powers, particularly over the security forces, but has also travelled the world with an appeal to donor nations to restore aid to the Palestinian Authority.

Under the Palestinians’ presidential system, Abbas could fire the Hamas government, but a replacement team would require the approval of the Hamas-controlled parliament.

Hamas has rejected the idea of forming a “technocrat” government devoid of Hamas politicians, and it’s unlikely the West would fall for such a charade.

Abbas’ other option, calling early elections, would be a huge gamble.

Many Palestinians would likely balk at returning to the polls so soon after the January legislative vote. They have been upset with what they consider the hypocrisy of the West, which they say preached democracy to them, then refused to accept the Palestinian election results.

There is a good chance Hamas that would simply be re-elected, said Moheeb al-Nawaty, author of a book on Hamas. Fatah, the long-time ruling party, is in disarray and still unpopular. Many voters had backed Hamas to punish Fatah for arrogance and widespread government corruption.

Hamas would not step aside easily, al-Nawaty added. “The scenario that Hamas is going to give up, that’s not going to happen,” he said.

The survival of the Hamas government depends largely on how much foreign aid, if any, it is able to funnel into the Palestinian areas.

Hamas leaders have collected tens of millions of dollars in the Arab and Muslim world to counter the Western sanctions. However, the money can’t be transferred to Gaza because of US pressure on banks afraid of running afoul of Washington’s anti-terrorism regulations.

Today, the so-called Quartet of Mideast mediators – the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia – is to meet in New York to discuss policy toward Hamas, and there are signs of a rift between Washington and its three Quartet partners.

The European Union has proposed sending money directly to Abbas to be spent on hospitals, schools and humanitarian needs.

While the US says it wants to keep sending humanitarian assistance, it has been cool to the European proposal. Critics say even payments bypassing the Hamas government would ease pressure on the Islamic militants.

The World Bank, which will attend today’s meeting, warned that the economic crisis is much more alarming than it had initially predicted.

In March, the bank forecast that poverty in the Palestinian areas would rise to 67% by the end of 2006, up from 44% last year. ”These projections now appear too rosy,” the bank said in a report yesterday.

Abu Zuhri, the Hamas spokesman, alleged that Washington’s ultimate goal is to bring down the Hamas government. If that happens, he warned, the entire region will plunge into turmoil.