Azerbaijani election commission annuls vote in one district

Azerbaijan’s opposition, emboldened by international criticism of the parliamentary vote and the government decision to annul the count in two districts, prepared for a massive protest rally tomorrow that it hopes will give it irreversible momentum.

“We plan to conduct daily actions that could grow into an indefinite protest,” said Fuad Mustafayev, deputy chairman of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan. “We will achieve the annulment of the elections. The question is how soon.”

The rally set for tomorrow has been permitted by authorities. But officials were unlikely to approve daily gatherings and police in the past have broken up unsanctioned gatherings swiftly and brutally.

That raises the challenge for an opposition movement that already lacks some of the key strengths that bolstered protests in other ex-Soviet states – it is not as organised as Ukraine’s Orange Revolution throngs, nor does it appear to enjoy the wide popular allegiance of Georgians for their Rose Revolution.

Political analyst Rasim Musabekov, who ran as an independent in Sunday’s vote and lost, said it made no sense to compare Azerbaijan’s opposition to those that came to power in other former Soviet republics.

“The difference is that (in others) it was a struggle between the reformist, modernising wing of the ruling elite and the conservative wing,” Musabekov said. “Here it is between the authorities and political forces that have been forced to the periphery and have very few resources.”

Another difference is that the Azerbaijani police have frequently acted brutally toward the opposition, beating protesters. There was a large police presence around strategic sites in the capital – including the Azadlig headquarters, where the Interior Ministry said it was intent on preventing any provocations.

The opposition hopes to bring out 50,000 demonstrators tomorrow, said one of its leaders, Ali Kerimli, chairman of the Popular Front. But Musabekov predicted no more than 20,000 would take part.

The government of President Ilham Aliev – as that of his late father Geidar Aliev before him – has persecuted the opposition, banning demonstrations, jailing its activists and directing state-run television to smear its leaders. He has accused one opposition leader in exile, Rasul Guliyev, of masterminding a coup attempt last month.

The opposition did chalk up some victories today. The Central Election Commission, where riot police in plastic protective gear were deployed, annulled the results of Sunday’s vote in two electoral districts and ordered a recount in a third.

Meanwhile, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party today claimed victory, winning 63 of the 125 seats in the legislature, according to preliminary official results.

Party secretary Ali Ahmadov said it was a “convincing victory” and one that most Azerbaijanis would support.

“I think if there’s one person from the opposition who opposes the results, two or three Azerbaijanis will stand up and support them,” he told a news conference.

Aliev’s spokesman, Azer Gasimov, accused the opposition of exaggerating the foreign observers’ criticism. He emphasised that the observer mission led by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Council of Europe had pointed to Azerbaijan’s failure to meet some – not all – international election standards.

“The opposition is misinforming public opinion,” he told a news conference. ‘The Azerbaijani opposition isn’t capable of admitting its own defeat.”

The commission began looking into complaints today and was expected to continue throughout the week. It annulled the elections in two constituencies and ordered a recount in 10 of the 28 precincts in Surakhani, a region where Kerimli had run. The races were declared earlier to have been won by pro-government candidates.

If at least one-fifth of the count in the 10 precincts is ruled to have been wrong, a new election will be called throughout the district.

Election commission chairman Mazahir Panahov said the recount had begun in one precinct and that Kerimli so far was in the lead. A spokesman for Kerimli’s party, Isaq Avazogli, said, however, that no-one in the party even knew where the recount was taking place, much less was allowed to monitor it.

Earlier today, another opposition leader, Isa Gambar, said Azadliq had no faith in the authorities’ commitment to address the violations.

The coalition contends the elections in four-fifths of polling places were marred by so many violations that they should be annulled.

Gambar said the coalition would turn to the European Court of Human Rights if the domestic court system did not deliver justice – which he considered a certainty.

“We are convinced that the Azerbaijani justice system unfortunately is not independent, it fulfills the orders of the president’s office,” he said.