Chirac makes last-ditch effort for a French 'yes'

President Jacques Chirac was making a last-ditch push today for a “yes” vote on the European Union’s first constitution, as speculation mounted that he will fire his prime minister if France votes down the landmark treaty.

Poll after poll has predicted that Sunday’s referendum will produce a dramatic French “no” to the treaty – planned as the next big step in a 50-year process of European integration. In the crucial final days of the heated campaign, pessimism has crept into Chirac’s “yes” camp.

Chirac will try to turn the situation round in a televised address Thursday at 7pm (Irish time), his last such appearance of the campaign. If “no” wins, Chirac would suffer the humiliation of becoming only the second leader, after Gen Charles de Gaulle, of losing a referendum since the founding of the French Fifth Republic in 1958.

The latest French poll had 54% against the treaty, with 46% in favour. But polls also show that 20% of voters are undecided – offering the “yes” camp some hope.

Chirac has said he won’t resign if the charter is rejected. But government officials said he would likely replace his faithful but very unpopular right-hand man, Raffarin, who in three years as prime minister has overseen a rise in the unemployment rate to 10% and difficult reforms to pensions, health care and other treasured French social protections.

Even Raffarin hinted that he may be replaced, saying this week: “Jobs are the government’s main priority, whoever the prime minister happens to be in the next few months.”

Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin, who as foreign minister made France’s case against the US-led Iraq war at the United Nations, and Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie were seen as the most likely replacements for 56-year-old Raffarin.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who heads Chirac’s conservative UMP party and previously, as interior minister, presided over a drop in crime, is popular but seen as a long shot to replace Raffarin because of his rivalry with Chirac.

But Chirac might name Sarkozy anyway, some observers say: Handing him the tough job of premier might be the easiest way to dent the popularity of a rival who could challenge Chirac for the presidency should the French leader stand again in 2007.

Beyond the ramifications for French politics, “no” could, at least temporarily, kill off the proposed constitution and its stated goal of closer integration between the EU’s 25 member states. They all must approve the text by referendum or parliamentary vote for it to go into effect in 2006.

In France, the issue is not divided along party lines. Chirac’s conservatives and the rival Socialists are pushing for a “yes,” while figures from within both parties are loudly dissenting. On Tuesday, 12 UMP lawmakers gathered at a Paris park to call for “no.”

Regardless of the outcome, the Socialists are expected to face a difficult healing process for their splits that have opened up during the campaign.

Bucking the party line of supporting the treaty, Socialist former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius has campaigned strongly for a “no.” Today he warned treaty opponents not to succumb to the belief that they have already won, calling for them to turn out in force Sunday.

“Everyone is saying, this is it, it’s already done,” Fabius told France-Info radio. “I don’t believe that. It’s not the polls that count, it’s the vote.”

A “no” would put extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen on the winning side. The 76-year-old anti-immigration leader has spent his career fighting European integration. He argues that the constitution aims to create a European super-state that would swallow up France.

“France would disappear if we adopted the European Constitution. It would be a sort of province with a sort of governor general,” the fiery leader told 1,500 people at a rally last night, striding up and down a stage adorned with French tricolour flags.

The European Constitution would place France “under the American protectorate of NATO,” Le Pen claimed.

Many voters in France and the Netherlands, who cast ballots three days after the French, have grave misgivings about the 448-clause constitution, saying it will erode social gains, hurt jobs and promote unfettered capitalism.

Some also are concerned that the EU has become too big, unwieldy and bureaucratic and fear that workers from low-cost countries in Eastern Europe that joined the EU last year will compete for jobs.

Former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing, who led the 17-month process of drafting the treaty, called the ”no” campaign “effective and perfidious because it didn’t discuss the constitution.”

Using soccer terminology, he told RTL radio: “I believe in the good sense of the French, so I’m telling them, ’don’t score a goal for the other team.”’