Tory resurgence cuts Labour's poll lead in Britain

British Prime Minister Tony Blair faced a clutch of sobering opinion polls today just as he prepared to call a May 5 General Election.

Three new polls gave Labour a slender lead over the Tories of just two or three points.

And a fourth – based on the views of those saying they were absolutely certain to vote – gave Michael Howard’s Conservative Party a five-point lead over Labour.

A Guardian/ICM poll suggested that the bounce in Labour’s fortunes following Chancellor Gordon Brown’s budget had proved short-lived.

The new poll put Labour on 37% – down three points since the March Guardian/ICM poll – with the Conservatives up two points, to 34%. The Liberal Democrats were on 21%, up one point.

Figures on specific policy issues suggested some of the reasons behind the rapid Tory post-Budget recovery.

They showed Mr Howard’s party had made significant headway on three issues - law and order, tax and public services and asylum immigration.

On law and order, a two-point net Labour lead became a six-point Conservative lead.

On asylum and immigration, a six-point Tory lead stretched to 13 points.

And on tax and public services a Labour lead of 10 points was cut to only three points.

The figures showed that the economy, the health service, education and the fight against terrorism remained very strong issues for Labour.

And Mr Blair remained the choice of the majority of voters as the best Prime Minister for Britain.

Among all voters, Mr Blair scored 38%, Mr Howard 26%, and Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy 18%.

ICM interviewed 1,507 adults nationwide by telephone between April 1-3.

An NOP poll for The Independent also gave Labour a three-point lead, with 36% of the vote – three points lower than last month’s NOP survey – with the Tories on 33%, down one point, and the Liberal Democrats on 21%, up two points.

Labour’s concern that it may struggle to get its traditional backers to the polling booths was borne out by the poll’s findings, with only 64% of Labour supporters saying they are certain to vote, compared with 77% of Conservative supporters.

NOP interviewed 956 adults between Friday and Sunday.

A Populus poll for The Times gave Labour a lead of just two points, with 37% of the vote – down two points compared with last month – the Conservatives on 35%, up three points, and the Liberal Democrats on 19%, down one point.

The poll suggested a low turnout, possibly only 56%.

However, well over two-thirds of the public – 72% – expected a Labour government with an overall majority, six times as many as expected a Conservative win – just 12%.

That included over half of Conservative supporters – 54%.

Even though nearly two-thirds – 65% – were disappointed in Labour overall, just a third – 32% – would rather have a Conservative Government. By contrast, 55% still preferred Labour.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,513 adults aged over 18 across the country by telephone between April 1-3.

The MORI poll for the Financial Times suggested that the Conservatives have a five-point lead over Labour among people who say they will definitely vote.

That poll, of those who describe themselves as “absolutely certain” to vote, put the Tories on 39%, Labour on 34%, and the Liberal Democrats on 21%.

That five-point lead was a sharp improvement on Mori’s March 24 poll, when the two main parties were neck and neck on 37% each.

The survey, conducted at the weekend, showed that only 55% of the electorate said they would definitely go to the ballot box.

If this result were replicated on polling day, Mori said it would produce a hung Parliament, with Labour as the biggest party in the Commons with 27 seats more than the Tories.

However, when people were asked which party they supported, irrespective of whether they would vote, Labour scored 38%, five points better than the Conservatives on 33%, with the Liberal Democrats on 23%.