Secrecy set to mark new pope's election race

The conclave to choose the next pope will be an election like no other, with many predicting the race will be as secretive as the Kremlin’s once were, if not more so.

Beginning in a couple weeks, 117 cardinals will select the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church, far and away the world’s biggest Christian denomination.

But if they obeyed the rules, none of the church leaders with this momentous duty ever discussed a successor to John Paul II while he was alive (The restriction once was aimed at keeping a pope from naming his own replacement).

Even with the lid off the topic now, overt campaigning for the job remains unacceptable and would kill a man’s chances. The church tries to play down the political aspects that are inevitably involved in selecting any leader.

The race is further complicated by the fact that the College of Cardinals has its largest crop of voters in history, and the most varied, hailing from 52 nations.

The college was holding its first meeting today to plan and set a date for the funeral and the conclave must begin 15 to 20 days after the Pope’s death.

Clues to emerging front-runners will be hard to come by, though modern technology may offer a little bit of help.

The 2005 election will draw the most massive media corps ever for a conclave, creating enormous pressure on the cardinals to grant interviews – once a rarity.

That could, in turn, influence the outcome. Cardinals will mostly limit their comments to generalisations, but colleagues may sift each others’ remarks for programmatic hints or potential alliances: Indiscreet statements will say more about who won’t be elected than who will.

And there’s another source of information that wasn’t around in 1978 – the internet. A cardinal’s every utterance is now stored there, if his fellow churchmen are curious. That could also make or break some of the “papabile”, as potential candidates are known in Italian.

From an observer’s standpoint, that’s still not much to go on.

For the insiders, important campaigning will occur in private – over meals and one-on-one or small group chats as cardinals assess candidates and take the measure of each other.

Many already know each over through world travels.

Those living outside Italy come to the Vatican for sessions of the international Synod of Bishops or other gatherings more frequently than before. As a Polish cardinal, John Paul made his mark at synods and was elected to their between-sessions governing body, extending his renown beyond Poland.

As pope, he took the unprecedented step of calling six special sessions where the full College of Cardinals advised him on church issues – letting the papal electors get to know one another.

The late pope’s influence extends even further: He not only single-handedly picked all but a few of this month’s voters but fixed the election procedures.

Once inside the tightly secured conclave, John Paul’s 1996 election decree allows the cardinals to switch after several rounds from a two-thirds majority winner and elect a pontiff by simple majority.

If geography dictates the winner, then another European is the safest bet. Once the centre of the church, the continent still retains nearly half the voting cardinals (those under age 80), with the 20 Italians in the lead.

Latin America claims 42% of the world’s 1.1 billion Catholics but only 18% of the votes in the conclave.

There will not be an American pope – the world body won’t go for a superpower pontiff – but with 11 votes, they have potential to develop as a swing group.

Though the voters are John Paul’s men, that doesn’t mean they’ll favour a John Paul clone. For one thing, John Paul isn’t clone-able. For another, cardinals often want to set the pendulum swinging toward a different sort of leader.

The 1978 electors who elevated John Paul II apparently looked for the man more than his policy.

Those within the church’s inner circle knew he was a star in Poland and at international synod meetings. That overcame hesitations about the doubly radical step of going outside Italy and choosing a pope from the communist bloc.

This time the electors will want someone who’s fluent in Italian – but not necessarily an Italian himself – and probably a pontiff who successfully led a diocese and can cope with the Vatican bureaucracy.

After John Paul’s long pontificate they may avoid younger candidates.

It all means there will be ample speculation in coming days, but minimal certainty – until the crowd in St Peter’s Square is finally told: “We have a pope.”