Kerry gains momentum in key states

Senator John Kerry has opened narrow leads in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and a handful of other battleground state polls since accepting the Democratic nomination, increasing pressure on President George Bush to regain lost ground at the Republican National Convention.

The incumbent hopes to reverse Kerry’s gains by reminding voters of his leadership after the September 11 terrorist attacks, outlining a second-term agenda that includes new domestic policies and questioning Kerry’s qualifications to be commander-in-chief.

Buoyed by the polls, Kerry’s team is growing confident – maybe too confident for some Democrats. Several supporters worry that rising expectations are setting the party up for disappointment should the race tighten after Bush’s convention in New York, which begins on August 30.

“You never want to point to your best poll numbers or your worst poll numbers, because neither hold,” said Democratic strategist Dane Strother.

The Kerry campaign has plenty of positive numbers to cite, including:

:: A Quinnipiac University poll showing Kerry and his running mate, John Edwards, with a slight lead in Florida over Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.

:: An Epic-MRA survey suggesting that Michigan is tilting slightly toward the Democratic ticket.

:: An American Research Group survey showing Kerry-Edwards with a small lead in New Hampshire.

Those three states, with a combined 48 electoral votes, were evenly split between Kerry and Bush before last month’s Democratic National Convention in Boston.

In addition, Pennsylvania and Oregon – a combined 28 electoral votes – were evenly split in July, and now the states appear to tilt toward Kerry, according to private polling and interviews with strategists in both parties.

While national polls show the race still tied or Kerry slightly ahead, the convention helped him trim Bush’s advantage on national security.

If public polls and pundits are right, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon and 15 others states plus the District of Columbia are in Kerry’s column or leaning his way with 269 electoral votes – one short of the presidency.

Florida still appears to be a tossup state, with Kerry leading by only a few points in private Democratic polling.

On Thursday, Bush campaigned in Nevada where he won the embrace of two California Republican icons, Nancy Reagan and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, hoping their glow would rub off on him.

At a fund raiser that brought in €2.98m for the Republican National Committee, Bush praised Schwarzenegger for his performance following last year’s gubernatorial recall election.

“He came to this important state and he got the job done,” Bush told donors. “That’s how I hope people view me as well as the president. I came to the capital and got the job done.”

Earlier, Bush and his wife stopped by the home of former first lady Nancy Reagan in the Bel-Air section of Los Angeles, where Mrs Reagan said she fully supports Bush’s re-election.