Mubarak illness raises democracy debate

A very public fit of presidential coughing and sneezing has energised debate among the Egyptian elite over democratisation and how power is wielded in the most populous Arab country, reform advocates said today.

State television cameras caught President Hosni Mubarak, 75, suffering what were said to be the effects of a bad flu before he interrupted a nationally broadcast speech last week opening a new session of parliament. Mubarak resumed his speech after about 30 minutes – but not before some Egyptians began to contemplate political life without him.

Abdel Moneim Said, head of Cairo’s Al-Ahram centre for political and strategic studies, a non-official think tank, said it was crucial Mubarak remained in charge to shepherd through reforms he had championed and that have been the subject of intense discussion among intellectuals and politicians in recent months.

He said “the event” of Mubarak faltering before parliament “will accelerate this discussion.” Only Mubarak, the think tank chief said, has the clout to transform talk of such reforms – including ushering in direct and competitive presidential elections – into reality.

Parliament, controlled by Mubarak’s National Democratic Party, now nominates one presidential candidate who then is presented to the public for a “yes” or “no” vote, a system that has allowed Mubarak a firm hold on power since he succeeded the assassinated Anwar Sadat in 1981.

Other reforms under discussion include allowing more open debate and freedom for opposition parties. Mubarak has yet to act on a pledge in September to cancel most emergency measures that since Sadat’s assassination at the hands of Muslim extremists have curtailed freedom of speech and other basic rights.

“I think these questions should be on the agenda now and I think many people are discussing them” in the wake of seeing Mubarak ill in public, said Gehad Auda, a pro-democracy activist and political scientist at Cairo’s Helwan University.

Mubarak’s health, along with other aspects of his personal life, is rarely raised in public and his official appearances are carefully staged.

In the days following the interrupted speech, Mubarak cancelled appearances at two ceremonies marking the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and a meeting with Cabinet ministers. Yesterday, he flew to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik, where he was expected to spend several days resting.

The sight of an ailing president – and his having dropped out of sight since - were worrisome, but didn’t send Egyptians into the streets. Most seem to accept - or are at least unwilling to publicly challenge – the official line he will soon recover from a minor illness.

The Egyptian media, most of which is official or heavily influenced by the state, has largely confined itself to reassuring the public Mubarak is fine or lauding him as “a symbol of steadfastness, hope and peace,” according to the daily newspaper Akhbar Al-Youm.

Reform will eventually mean a more open, wider public debate, but for now, it is a matter for the elite, activist Auda said. He added he believed reform had been embraced by powerful Egyptians, including Mubarak and his influential 40-year-old son Gamal.

Auda said outside pressure was responsible for some of the momentum for reform.

In a major foreign policy speech last week that echoed themes he and his aides have been sounding for months, US President George W. Bush proposed democracy as the antidote to the Middle East’s “stagnation and anger and violence,” and pledged to “expect a higher standard from our friends in the region.” Washington has long been closely allied with Cairo and Mubarak.

Gamal Mubarak, portrayed as the forward-looking force pushing his father’s promised reforms, is an increasingly visible power. Father and son deny Gamal Mubarak is being groomed as the next president. But Hosni Mubarak has no official successor – he has refused to name a vice president as the constitution requires.

Gamal Abdel Nasser, the charismatic military man who toppled Egypt’s monarchy, had a vice-president. Mubarak was the vice-president of Nasser’s successor Sadat.

“Every president has his own way,” government spokesman Taha Abdel-Alim said today. “Maybe Mubarak is thinking another way, or maybe he will at any time name a vice-president.”

Without a vice-president, the constitution sets out the speaker of parliament would take over in an emergency until a new president could be nominated by parliament and approved by the people.

“Don’t worry about Egypt. It’s a very stable state,” spokesman Abdel-Alim said.