Bush's visit to Britain mired in problems

In what seems like a colossal case of bad timing on both sides of the Atlantic, President Bush is set for a state visit to Britain at a time when both he and Tony Blair are mired in slumping ratings because of continuing turmoil in Iraq.

Blair stands to lose the most politically from the visit, US and British analysts suggest.

Recent polls show a clear majority of voters think Bush was wrong on Iraq and regard Blair’s closeness to the president as bad for Britain.

But it is also hard to see what benefit Bush can claim by offering a fresh reminder that he and Blair marched together against most of the world in deciding to invade Iraq.

Bush’s visit, from next Tuesday to Friday, is becoming a magnet for protesters from all over Europe, with tens of thousands of demonstrators expected to take to the streets.

Originally intended to be a sparkling celebration of the US-British alliance, the state visit was initiated by the British Queen and has been in the planning stages for well over a year.

Bush and his wife, Laura, will stay at Buckingham Palace as the Queen’s guests.

Cancelling the visit was never an option, Bush administration officials said in Washington.

“You know freedom is a beautiful thing and the fact that people are willing to come out and express themselves says I’m going to a great country,” Bush told reporters.

Blair said that, despite anti-war sentiment, withdrawing from Iraq “is the worst thing that we could possibly do.”

“I believe this is exactly the right time for him to come,” Blair asserted.

Buffeted by criticism about Iraq from other world leaders, Bush has found comfort in Blair’s stalwart support.

“Bush needs to make sure he’s still got Tony Blair there supporting him,” said James Goldgeier, an international politics professor at George Washington University.

“For Bush, there’s been no one over the last year as articulate as Blair in explaining why it was important to do what was done in Iraq.”

White House political advisers hope, at least, that images of Bush standing alongside Blair and with the Queen amid the pomp and ceremony of a state visit will remind Americans that the United States is not alone in Iraq, that the British are there as well.

Such images, however, may have to compete with far more vivid pictures of street demonstrations, American flag burnings and the planned toppling of a mesh statue of Bush in Trafalgar Square during a “Stop Bush” march that organisers predict will draw 60,000 or more demonstrators.

The state visit comes at a particularly sensitive time for the unpopular occupation. Some of the deadliest Iraqi guerrilla attacks yet on coalition forces have prompted the United States to reconsider its long-term strategy in hopes of finding ways to speed a transfer of power to the Iraqis.

“Obviously, the prime minister and the president will have a long time to talk about how to move this all forward,” said Bush’s national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice.

Despite assertions of solidarity by both Bush and Blair, there have been some recent strains in the Anglo-American “special relationship.”

Some frustrated British military officers stationed in Iraq have complained that American military commanders are not paying attention to their concerns.

Meanwhile, Blair has been charting a separate course in pressing for a European Union defence capability apart from NATO, and joining France and Germany in backing a deal to give Iran more access to civilian nuclear technology in exchange for opening itself to nuclear inspections.

Both initiatives have been received coolly in Washington.

Blair and Bush find themselves at odds over US steel tariffs, which the World Trade Organisation ruled last week violated international fair-trade rules. And there is sizeable public opposition to plans for the scrapping of four decommissioned US Navy ships – contaminated with asbestos and other toxic chemicals – in a shipyard in Hartlepool.

Blair is under heavy political pressure from the Labour party to demonstrate more distance from the US president.

The state visit may “work better for Bush than for Blair,” even with large anti-Bush street demonstrations, suggested Michael Mandelbaum, a foreign policy professor at Johns Hopkins University.

“I don’t think the fact that there are some people in Europe that don’t approve of American policies is a big electoral liability in the United States,” Mandelbaum said. “It never has been in the past.”