Russia may back UK's new UN resolution

With the UN Security Council bracing for a showdown over Iraq, a top Russian diplomat said today that Moscow continues to oppose any attempt to legitimise war but hinted that it might back a compromise proposal to preserve its warm ties with the United States.

Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov said that Russia could consider an evolving British proposal for a new resolution “if it’s a sincere attempt to find a political solution in the extraordinarily difficult circumstances.”

The United States is pushing for a vote on a resolution that would authorise the use of forces against Iraq, but a British proposal is percolating to soften the resolution by offering Iraq a near-term deadline to prove it has eliminated all banned weapons.

“If it’s just another way to legitimise a quick military operation,” however, Russia will oppose the new resolution, he said at a briefing.

Both Russia and France have threatened to veto any UN resolution authorising force. Yet some analysts predict that when push comes to shove, President Vladimir Putin won’t risk a move that would jeopardise the warm relationship with Washington tht he has worked so hard to build.

“A quarrel with the United States would undermine Putin’s own credibility, since he has invested too much in friendship with the Americans,” said Yevgeny Volk, the head of the Heritage Foundation’s Moscow office.

Others say it would be too damaging politically for Putin to make an abrupt about-face after he had so firmly opposed the war.

“There is a strong likelihood of a Russian veto of a resolution that would sanction war,” said Alexander Pikayev of the Carnegie Endowment.

The growing US pressure on Russia is making it even harder for Putin to compromise because “it would look like caving in to US threats, a sign of weakness,” Pikayev said. “Vague threats from Washington are counterproductive because they only make it harder for the Kremlin to backtrack.”

US officials have warned that Russia would pay unspecified costs if it uses its veto. Moscow has hoped that warm ties with Washington would bring the removal of a Cold War-era US legislation hampering Russian exports, help Russian accession to the World Trade Organisation and reap other benefits.

Pikayev said that a milder resolution containing just a veiled reference to the use of force might be a graceful way of retreat for both Russia and France. However, such a formulation doesn’t appear to be in the offing.

Signs of a rift over Iraq have become increasingly visible among Russian officials as the UN vote approaches. Although the Foreign Ministry has taken a tough line against sanctioning the use of force, Mikhail Margelov, the head of the foreign affairs committee in Russia’s upper house – who has Putin’s ear - seemed most concerned about preventing a split that could gravely damage the Security Council’s authority.

“If Russia not using the veto is the only way to prevent this split, then our diplomats must seriously think about it,” Margelov said in an interview published Friday in the daily Vremya Novostei.

Volk said Russia’s pledge to use its veto power apparently reflected annoyance with Washington’s refusal to promise that a new regime in Baghdad would repay the nation’s £4.35 billion debt to Russia and allow Russian oil companies to pursue multibillion oil contracts they signed with the current Iraqi leadership.

Asked how Russia would react if the United States launches a military attack on Iraq, Mamedov said Moscow would be strongly critical of the move, but added that both nations should focus on preserving their otherwise warm ties.

“The emphasis shouldn’t be on how we will criticise each other if we fail to reach agreement, but on what we should do today to preserve the general movement toward partnership and the integrity of the anti-terror coalition ... while differing in our assessment of certain issues,” Mamedov said.

If the United States attacks Iraq, Moscow’s reaction will be subdued, Volk predicted.

“Russia will call it a mistake ... but won’t make any specific tough response,” he said.