Blast puts pressure on Indonesian leader

The Bali nightclub bombing that killed almost 200 people may push Indonesian leader Megawati Sukarnoputri off the political fence and put her fragile hold over the world’s biggest Muslim country in question.

The United States and other countries are demanding that Indonesia crack down on al-Qaida and the homegrown extremists many believe orchestrated the attack, but Megawati could incite a radical Islamic backlash if she does.

Yet with the death toll from Bali topping 180 - mostly young foreign tourists - the opportunity for Megawati to act may never be better.

"Megawati does not have too much wiggle room right now," said Ken Conboy, a former deputy director at the Asian Studies Institute in Washington who now works in Jakarta for the Control Risks security group.

"She is known to be a reticent soul, but if enough people push her, she will do it."

There has been some movement already: An army-sponsored militant group, Laskar Jihad, said it was disbanding. The organisation is blamed for killing thousands of Christians in sectarian warfare in the outlying Maluku islands.

Laskar Jihad is not accused of involvement in the Bali bombings, but its continued existence has been a public relations liability.

US President George Bush said on Monday that the Bali attack appeared to be part of a new wave of terrorism inspired by al-Qaida and that he planned to talk with Megawati about it.

"I hope I hear the resolve of a leader who recognises that any time terrorists take hold in a country it is going to weaken the country itself," Bush said.

"And there has to be a firm and deliberate desire to find out - find the killers before they kill somebody else."

However, Megawati is known for being indecisive, aloof and enigmatic, and almost never saying anything pointed.

She has, in fact, made almost no public pronouncement since the bombing or attempted to galvanise public opinion.

She made a tearful tour of the blast site on Sunday, but has barely been visible since returning to the capital Jakarta.

Megawati, 55, owes her job to being the daughter of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, and to blunders by political rivals.

She is a nominal Muslim with nationalist and secular leanings, who takes care not to offend the many Islamic politicians questioning whether a woman should head a Muslim country.

Critics accuse her of being incapable of grasping the issues - economic decline, civil strife, rampant corruption - besetting this sprawl of 13,000 islands.

Still, Megawati took a bold step by allowing the United States, Australia and Britain to join the Bali investigation.

Any solid forensic or high-tech evidence linking the bombing to al-Qaida or its regional ally, Jemaah Islamiyah, will probably come from foreigners rather than the poorly equipped local police.

That evidence could help Megawati win public support for a crackdown. She will also need some military approval to proceed against Jemaah Islamiyah.

"They have got to sell the case to the public," said Greg Fealy, a lecturer on Indonesian politics at Australian National University. "The tricky thing will be if no clear-cut evidence emerges."

Megawati’s tough sell starts with her own fractious coalition government.

Vice President Hamzah Haz, who leads a moderate Islamic party, has been an outspoken supporter of Abu Bakar Bashir, the man many countries consider the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah.

The group allegedly seeks to establish a pan-Islamic state in Southeast Asia and stands accused of plotting to bomb Western embassies, including the British High Commission, in Singapore.

Bashir associate Riduan Isamuddin, known as Hambali, is believed to have been al-Qaida’s chief regional contact and to have set up a January 2000 meeting in Malaysia between two September 11, 2001, hijackers and other al-Qaida operatives.

Indonesia has resisted international calls to arrest Bashir, claiming it lacks evidence.

"I think attitudes have hardened a lot after this bombing," Fealy said. "There is a lot of exasperation at what is seen as Indonesian foot-dragging."