25 million Aids orphans within eight years say experts

In another grim report on the evolution of the global Aids pandemic, experts estimated today that the number of children in the developing world orphaned by the disease will increase from 13.4 million today to 25 million in the next eight years.

Several statistics recently published have shown that the global epidemic has just begun, but Dr Peter Piot, executive director of the UN Aids agency, said the orphans report was one of the most shocking to be presented at the week long International Aids Conference in Barcelona.

‘‘In 1990 we had less than a million orphans due to Aids,’’ said one of the report’s authors, Karen Stanecki of the US Census Bureau.

In 1995 there were more than 4.5 million children in the developing world who had lost either or both of their parents. In 2001 that figure stood at 13.4 million.

In 2005 there will be 20 million and by 2010 the toll will pass 25 million, Stanecki said.

‘‘This is without doubt one of the most shocking reports that has been released at this conference, and so many things have been said here,’’ Piot said. ‘‘It is an illustration of how Aids has moved to a truly family disease. Aids has created an orphans crisis and that word is really not an exaggeration.’’

Even if the spread of HIV could be stopped today, the number of orphans would continue to increase for the next decade, added Anne Peterson of the US Agency for International Development, or USAID.

Another report released today, by the Swiss-based advocacy and research group Association Francois-Xavier Bagnoud, predicted an even worse scenario - as many as 100 million orphans by 2010.

The estimates by Neil Monk, a social scientist with that group, include many more children in the definition of orphan.

International agency estimates only count children up to the age of 15 because government statistics classify people in five year age groups and cutting off at 15 was simpler than trying to calculate the numbers that would include older teenagers.

The age limit was not set because children 16 and older cannot be termed orphans, US researchers said.

‘‘We’ve used a figure because it is important to quote a figure because people just won’t listen if you don’t,’’ Monk said. ‘‘We know the truth is we can’t put an exact figure on it.’’

‘‘The true figure is not the important issue. The issue is that however many children it is today, never mind by 2010, we are not providing care and support for all of them. And do we really need to know the precise figure to provide this?’’ Monk said.