Swing to the right in Dutch elections

Dutch voters appeared likely to upset their country’s well-oiled political order today with an election that could put an untested party without a leader into the ruling coalition.

The murder of populist leader Pim Fortuyn last week has shaken the political scene so much that some fear today’s vote will produce an unstable coalition that could collapse within 18 months, requiring new elections.

The only certainty is a swing to the right, as voters react to a slumping economy, crime that they associate with immigration, and what they perceive as unresponsive politicians.

Local newspapers called it the most bizarre election in Dutch history.

But voters turned out in heavy numbers at 10,000 polling stations, and Dutch TV said 16% of the 12 million electorate voted within the first three-and-a-half hours, compared with 13% four years ago.

Official results are to be posted on May 21, but the outcome was expected to be clear within hours of the end of voting at 9pm (8pm Irish time).

The front-runner for prime minister is Jan Peter Balkenende, a 46-year-old former professor of Christian philosophy who became leader of the Christian Democrats last October.

Balkenende joined parliament just four years ago, and has never held a position of national leadership.

Of the 15 parties in the race, four will almost certainly determine the next government - though the bargaining to form a coalition could take weeks, and perhaps months.

After eight years of a centre-left alliance under Prime Minister Wim Kok, all of the leading parties except Kok’s Labour Party now have a right-wing outlook.

The wild card of the four is Pim Fortuyn’s List, a collection of political newcomers who were hand-picked by Fortuyn just three months ago.

The other three parties are the Christian Democrats - who were part of every post-Second World War government until 1994 - the Labour Party and the Liberal Party, the second major party in the outgoing coalition.

A poll released just a few hours before the voting began gave a clear lead to the Christian Democrats, predicting to win 35 seats. The other three parties were expected to get 24 to 26 seats.

The irreverent, charismatic Fortuyn was an openly gay politician who attracted a huge following with his brash but ill-defined policies.

He called for a halt to further immigration, a crackdown on crime and for throwing out what he called the entrenched political elite.

He was popular with people unhappy over what they viewed as a distant, exclusive club of professional politicians.

But his candidates form a disparate group with little in common other than loyalty to their murdered leader, and some analysts predict the party will soon splinter.

Fortuyn was shot dead in the car park of a radio station on May 6. Police arrested a 32-year-old animal rights activist, but the motive for the shooting was unclear.