EU predicts 3m more migrants by the end of 2016

The EU is predicting that 3m more migrants could arrive in the 28-nation bloc by the end of next year, with the refugee emergency already providing a stern test of EU capacities to offer shelter and welcome.

More than 700,000 people have come to Europe seeking sanctuary or jobs so far this year, overwhelming reception centres and border authorities.

EU autumn economic forecasts show that, based on current migrant entries and a “technical assumption” about future flows, arrival rates are unlikely to slow before 2017.

The EU’s executive commission said that, “overall, an additional 3m persons is assumed to arrive in the EU over the forecast period”.

Yesterday, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras was a first-hand witness, seeing migrants and refugees reaching the Greek island of Lesbos by dinghy as his motorcade travelled from Lesbos airport to a new registration facility.

“We realised that is a criminal process being carried out by the smugglers who cram refugees onto vessels that are not boats, but makeshift inflatables,” he said.

“What’s happening in the Aegean Sea is a crime.”

The flow of migrants into Greece’s mainland and beyond was turning to a trickle, however, as a ferry strike entered its fourth day and trapped thousands on the eastern Aegean islands.

Police in the Idomeni border area said 850 people had crossed into Macedonia between Wednesday and yesterday morning. Numbers usually range from 4,000 to 8,000 people per day.

The European Commission said the refugee crisis has resulted in additional government spending but that it could have a small, positive impact on European economies in a few years.