By-election to boost 2015 push: Farage

Campaign dominated by immigration as Cameron digs in

The outcome of next year’s British general election will be up in the air if Ukip wins the Rochester and Strood by-election, Nigel Farage has said. The Ukip leader predicted his party’s Conservative defector Mark Reckless will become its second MP, saying its vote was solid.

But Mr Farage, speaking hours before the counting of votes started in the crunch by-election contest, admitted to feeling nervous.

Outside a sweet shop in Rochester High Street, he said: “I feel our vote is solid. I think we are going to win but I think it’s maybe closer than people think.

“It’s rather high noon because the prime minister in a sense put his own credibility on the line by almost being the candidate for the Conservative Party for the first half of the campaign. He has thrown the kitchen sink at it, they have thrown everything at this campaign. But do you know what? So have we.

“This matters because this is our 271st target seat. If we win this, looking forward to next year’s general election, all bets are off and the whole thing is up in the air,” he said.

In a campaign dominated by immigration, Mr Reckless is the strong favourite to regain the Kent constituency. Victory for Mr Farage’s party would be another wounding blow for David Cameron whose hopes of regaining No 10 in the general election are threatened by Ukip’s surge in the polls. The Conservatives have already seen the previously safe Tory seat of Clacton fall to Mr Reckless’s fellow defector to Ukip, Douglas Carswell.

The fear among the Tory high command is that a second convincing by-election victory for Ukip could encourage other waverers in the Conservative ranks to jump ship and join them.

Defeat would be particularly damaging for the Conservatives as they had claimed that — unlike in Clacton where Mr Carswell had established a strong personal following — they stood a good chance of winning in Rochester and Strood.

Tory MPs were ordered to make at least three campaign visits to the constituency and Mr Cameron put his own authority on the line by going five times. But with the opinion polls consistently pointing to a Ukip victory, in recent days the Conservatives have been seeking to play down expectations that they could come out on top.

The hope among senior Tories would now appear to be that the margin of their defeat will be sufficiently narrow to deter other potential defectors. They have taken encouragement from some polls which have suggested that former Conservative voters planning to support Ukip in the by-election will return to them in the general election in May.

Speaking after voting, Mr Reckless said: “Today is not a day for politicians but for the people of Rochester and Strood. I ask their permission. We will see what their answer is later today.”