Ebola could infect 1.4m in worst-case scenario

US health officials laid out worst-case and best-case scenarios for the ebola epidemic in West Africa, warning that the number of infected people could explode to at least 1.4m by mid-January — or peak well below that, if efforts to control the outbreak are ramped up.

The widely varying projections by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention were based on conditions in late August and do not take into account a recent international surge in medical aid for the stricken region. That burst has given reason for some optimism.

“I’m confident the most dire projections are not going to come to pass,” CDC chief Dr Tom Frieden said in releasing the report.

About 5,800 illnesses and over 2,800 deaths have been counted since the first cases were reported six months ago. But international health authorities have warned that the crisis is probably far worse in reality, with many corpses and infected people hidden or unreported.

The CDC, for example, estimated that the real number of cases, reported and unreported, could reach 21,000 by September 30 in just two of the hardest-hit countries, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In its worst-case scenario, the CDC said the number of illnesses in those nations could hit 1.4 million by January 20.

But the CDC also said the epidemic in both countries could be almost ended by January 20, by aggressively isolating the sick, and by taking steps to reduce the spread of the disease during burials. “A surge now can break the back of the epidemic,” Frieden said.

The CDC did not give an estimate of how many ebola cases overall could be expected under the best-case scenario. But it said the number of new cases per day could be fewer than 300 by mid-January, instead of the thousands feared.