Mugabe’s ability to last full term in doubt

When Zimbabwe’s veteran president Robert Mugabe suavely hosted journalists at State House on the eve of last month’s election, there was only one question that caught him off guard.

Asked if the presence of defence minister Emmerson Mnangagwa by his side meant that he was his chosen successor, Mugabe paused awkwardly amid laughter and then replied that Mnangagwa had just dropped by to see him.

Three weeks after Mugabe’s re-election in a disputed vote called a fraud by his main rival but accepted by his African neighbours, there are no doubts Africa’s oldest leader is holding firmly on to the presidency.

But the question of whether, at 89, he can serve out all of his new five-year term — and who will succeed him if he steps down or dies — will hang uncomfortably over his re-installation as Zimbabwe’s head of state today.

It will also be crucial for the future of the southern African nation, which is rich in platinum, gold and diamonds but still emerging from a decade-long recession brought on by political violence and government-backed land seizures.

Mugabe faces few immediate threats. Longtime rival Morgan Tsvangirai has been stunned by the enormity of his defeat in an election he says was rigged. Last week he dropped a challenge to Mugabe’s re-election that his Movement for Democratic Change had filed in the Constitutional Court.

The court confirmed on Tuesday that Mugabe’s win was “free, fair and credible” and had reflected the “will of the people”.

Faced with a meek but broad endorsement of the result by African regional and continental bodies, Western governments must decide whether to shun the man they revile as a ruthless dictator, or attempt a rapprochement in the interests of practical diplomacy.

Mugabe’s non-committal answer on the succession is typical of a wily and inscrutable guerrilla politician who fought a liberation war leading to independence in 1980, crushed a revolt once in power and has outfoxed rivals in and outside his fractious Zanu-PF party.

Mugabe comes across as sprightly for his age. He has denied reports that he has prostate cancer and told reporters he intends to serve his full new term.

But his advanced years and persistent questions about his health means that his endurance in office carries a cloud of uncertainty for Zimbabwe’s future.

The United States, a major critic of Mugabe, has made clear it does not believe his latest re-election was credible and that a loosening of US sanctions on Zimbabwe “will occur only in the context of credible, transparent and peaceful reforms that reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people”.