Romney took a huge step toward securing the role of flagbearer when rival Rick Santorum bowed out of the race Tuesday, and the chatter about who gets the nod from the former governor of Massachusetts has taken flight.
He quickly sought to dispel the notion that he might rush to find a partner for the ticket — not after the controversy over Sarah Palin, who was John McCain’s surprise running mate in their 2008 loss to Obama.
“No list yet,” Romney said. “That’s a process which has not begun yet, but will probably begin pretty soon.”
Never mind that. For weeks already, Romney’s advisors have been eyeing a potential running mate, poring over voting records and personal details in what is one of the most rigorous vetting processes endured by any politician.
Romney trails Obama badly among Hispanics; does he choose a Latino as vice president to neutralise the incumbent’s advantage among those voters, who comprise one of the largest minority blocs in the country?
One of the most talked about VP candidates of the moment is Cuban-American Marco Rubio, the dashing US senator from Florida who’d be equally comfortable campaigning in Spanish or selling Romney’s conservative credentials to sceptical core Republicans.
“Marco Rubio would bring an excitement to this ticket that it doesn’t have with just Mitt Romney,” said Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention.
Rubio could help win Florida, a swing state which Land said “could be as decisive this year as Texas was in 1960”.
That was the last time a vice presidential candidate helped win a large home state.
But John F Kennedy selected Lyndon Johnson of Texas not just to carry that state, but most of the South, and in the half-century since Kennedy’s razor-thin victory just a quarter of VP candidates have come from large states.
If history is a guide, Republicans must win the crucial state of Ohio to take the keys to the White House. That brings to the fore Senator Rob Portman, a veteran Ohio lawmaker who served in two roles in the Bush administration and has been vetted extensively.
“Portman is not going to threaten voters in the middle with extreme rhetoric,” said political observer Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a public policy think tank.
“He’s got an enormous amount of Washington know-how and he’ll probably make Romney simply feel more comfortable,” Ornstein said.
In other words, boring but safe. But the safe bet may not be the right one.
“One piece of conventional wisdom circulating right now is that Mitt Romney should not pick a boring white guy as his running mate,” author Keith Koeneman wrote recently in The Huffington Post.
Romney is on the wrong side of the gender gap, with polls showing Obama leading by double digits among women. New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, the nation’s first Hispanic female governor, could check not one but two key boxes for Romney.
Speculation is rampant in US media, with Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan, the powerful House Budget Committee chairman, on several short lists. Former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is also being mentioned.
But for now the Romney campaign is staying mum.