Nuclear evidence on Iran to stoke Mid-East tensions

THE UN nuclear watchdog is expected this week to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as geared to developing atomic bombs, heightening international suspicions of Tehran’s agenda and stoking Middle East tensions.

Western powers are likely to seize on the International Atomic Energy Agency document, which has been preceded by media speculation in Israel of military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, to press for more sanctions on the oil producer. However, Russia and China fear the publication of the IAEA’s findings could hurt any chance of diplomacy resolving the long-running nuclear row and they have lobbied against it, signalling opposition to any new punitive UN measures against Iran.

The report is tentatively scheduled to be submitted to IAEA member states on Wednesday before a quarterly meeting the following week of the agency’s 35-nation board of governors in Vienna. The document is expected to give fresh evidence of research and other activities with little other application than atomic bomb-making, including studies linked to the development of an atom bomb trigger and computer modelling of a nuclear weapon.

Sources familiar with the document said, among other things, it would support allegations that Iran built a large steel container for the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives applicable to nuclear weapons.

The report will flesh out and expand on concerns voiced by the IAEA for several years over allegations that Iran had a linked programme of projects to process uranium, test high explosives and modify a missile cone to take a nuclear payload.

It is not believed to contain an explicit assessment that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability. “The IAEA’s report will not likely contain any smoking guns,” said Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

But Western diplomats say the dossier will be incriminating for the Islamic Republic and present a compelling case it is carrying out weapons-relevant work.

Iran says the accusations of military nuclear activity are forged and baseless, showing no sign of backing down in the face of intensified international pressure.

Iran’s history of concealing sensitive nuclear activity and its refusal to suspend work that can potentially yield atomic bombs have already been punished by four rounds of UN sanctions, and separate US and European punitive steps.

Israeli President Shimon Peres warned yesterday that an attack on Iran is becoming increasingly likely.

“The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option,” Peres told the Israel Hayom daily. “We must stay calm and resist pressure so that we can consider every alternative.

“I don’t think that any decision has already been made, but there is an impression that Iran is getting closer to nuclear weapons.”