UN: World population could hit 15 billion

THE world’s population of seven billion is set to rise to at least 10 billion by 2100, but could top 15 billion if birth rates are just slightly higher than expected, the United Nations has warned.

In a report ahead of ceremonies on October 31 to mark the seven billionth human alive today, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) warned that demographic pressure posed mighty challenges for easing poverty and conserving the environment.

New estimates see a global human tally of 9.3 billion at 2050, an increase over earlier figures, and more than 10 billion by century’s end, UNFPA said.

But, it added, “with only a small variation in fertility, particularly in the most populous countries, the total could be higher: 10.6 billion people could be living on Earth by 2050 and more than 15 billion in 2100.”

The 126-page document, “The State of the World Population 2011”, highlights a surge that began with the post-World War II baby boom — a numbers “bulge” that shows up in following generations as they in turn grow up and have children.

In contrast, prosperity, better education and access to contraception have slashed the global fertility rate to the point that some rich countries have to address a looming population fall.

Over the past six decades, fertility has declined from a statistical average of 6.0 children per women to about 2.5 today, varying from 1.7 in the most advanced economies to 4.2 in the least developed nations.

Even so, 80 million people each year are added to the world’s population. People under 25 comprise 43% of the total.

“Our record population can be viewed in many ways as a success for humanity — people are living longer, healthier lives,” said Babatunde Osotimehin, UNFPA’s executive director.

“How did we become so many? How large a number can our Earth sustain?” he asked. “These are important questions, but perhaps not the right ones for our times. When we look only at the big number, we risk being overwhelmed and losing sight of new opportunities to make life better for everyone in the future.”

The UN also said migration will become more significant in the coming century, with people moving across borders as well as within their own countries.

In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates have stunted development and perpetuated poverty, the report said. Getting girls to school and providing women with jobs and equal opportunities, as well as sexual and reproductive healthcare, including family planning was essential.

In some of the richest countries, low fertility rates and too few people entering the job market have raised fears about the prospects for sustained economic growth and the viability of social security systems.

Growing global interdependence meant governments had to work out how to deal with record populations if they were to avoid future competition for limited resources such as food and water.