Socialist party rivals battle for French presidential nod
Hollande took the lead in the first round of primary voting, but at 39% to 31%, Aubry has a chance to outflank him on the left and grab the nomination in the run-off.
The stakes are high — opinion polls suggest either Socialist would beat the centre-right incumbent in next April’s presidential election — and the pair have a history of enmity despite their similar political outlooks.
Hollande was still predicting victory, but admitted he does not expect a “very wide margin”. Aubry feels the momentum is with her, declaring: “I’m campaigning for fundamental change and... I’ll beat Sarkozy in 2012.”
They are from the same generation and both were acolytes of former European Commission chairman Jacques Delors: Aubry is his daughter, Hollande led the backroom team that urged him to run for president in 1995.
Delors demurred, and the left has been excluded from the presidency ever since. During this time, Hollande and Aubry’s careers diverged.
She is mayor of Lille and, as labour minister and number two cabinet figure under Socialist premier Lionel Jospin, introduced France’s 35-hour working week. He was leader of the party, but has never held high office.
Both remain on the ideological centre ground within the party, but Aubry tacked to the left — at least rhetorically — during the primary campaign, rallying the party’s base in a time of austerity and economic crisis.
Hollande is now under pressure to do the same. The third-placed candidate in the first round of the primary was Arnaud Montebourg, who campaigned on a platform of protectionism and tougher controls on financial markets.
The candidate who wins will be the one who convinces those on the left of the party that he or she offers a better chance of a clean break with Sarkozy and the right’s austere economic programme.
Montebourg has not yet thrown his weight between either front runner, but most observers expect the bulk of his voters to lean towards Aubry.
When Aubry replaced Hollande as Socialist leader in 2008 she was fiercely critical of his collegial, easy-going style of leadership, which she felt had left the party divided.
She wasn’t impressed by the allegedly dilapidated condition of party headquarters, and aides mocked Hollande’s jovial public persona, joking on chat shows while Aubry pushed policy.
Hollande responded by toning down his humour, adopting a more serious tone and shedding 10 kilos. He built a strong lead in opinion polls but never quite shook off the chasing pack.
The right had been hoping that the US-style open primary, a political novelty in France, would trigger a bout of the infighting that has blighted Socialist prospects so often in recent years.
In that, they were disappointed. The debates remained serious and professional and the campaign seems to have given the left as a whole a boost.
But what attacks there have been have been directed at Hollande, accused by his rivals of lacking ministerial experience. In public he has remained civil, but there has never been any doubt of his anger towards Aubry.
“You have dinner with her, and she’s super nice. You bump into her the next day, and she stabs you in the back. For no reason,” he said in May, according to a newspaper report.
Any new spat between the pair could undermine Socialist hopes to use the energy generated by a successful primary as a springboard for the presidential race.
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