Fears that the first revolution may be wasted

IN THE offices of one of Tunisia’s many political parties, a poster captures the fear that keeps people returning to the streets.

It shows a woman in a protest holding a simple sign: “The martyrs did not die for a new dictatorship.”

Nine months after the revolt that swept away President Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali and sparked uprisings around the Arab world, Tunisians fear the changes they fought for may already be fading.

Most Tunisians are proud their revolution spread to the rest of the region, and keen to set an example with elections in October. However, many worry that Ben Ali loyalists continue to hold positions of power. They also fear divisions, particularly over the role of Islam, could destabilise the transition to democracy and leave unresolved the economic problems that helped spark the uprising.

Since Ben Ali fled into exile in Saudi Arabia on January 14, Tunisian authorities have registered more than 100 parties. The 10 biggest — they range from Islamists to pro-market liberals to Communists — existed in various guises before the revolution.

Only a handful of the smaller, newer parties have any hope of making an impact in elections; most are likely to merge or close down. But, to the disgust of many Tunisians, two prominent officials from Ben Ali’s now dissolved Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) have set up their own parties and plan to run.

And even if the old regime does not return, politics is likely to remain messy. Tunisians will vote for parties to join a constituent assembly — a transitional body tasked with drafting a new constitution.

There is little disagreement over the key elements of that document. Most Tunisians agree it must guarantee multi-party politics, freedom of expression and an independent judiciary. But fundamental divisions remain, mostly over the country’s identity.

Tunisia’s independence hero and first president, Habib Bourguiba, was a nationalist and secularist who famously referred to the Muslim veil as an “odious rag”. Tunisia’s existing constitution bans polygamy and safeguards women’s rights in divorce and marriage, making it one of the most progressive in the Arab world. But it also identifies Tunisia as a state whose language is Arabic and religion Islam.

Some secularists want that clause removed, saying it discriminates against Tunisia’s ethnic Berbers, as well as its small Jewish community. However, Ennahda, a mainstream Islamist party banned under Ben Ali, insists that the clause stay.

Analysts say the electoral process is likely to be threatened more by other sources, including the remnants of the RCD, who are resisting reform, or the military, should it decide Ennahda has become too powerful and threatens the secular nature of the state.

Low voter registration is another concern. A low turnout would undermine the legitimacy of the constituent council and expose the constitution it drafts to attack. But a May opinion poll found that, despite the confusion, the overwhelming majority of Tunisians intend to vote in October.