Chavez’s illness puts focus on successor

SPECULATION that Hugo Chavez could be suffering from a serious illness is putting attention on a predicament for the president’s allies: It’s unclear who could step forward if he had to step down.

Few Venezuelans are talking publicly about the possibility of Chavez leaving office, partly because top government officials and close relatives have repeatedly said the president is recuperating in Cuba following surgery there two weeks ago.

Still, Chavez’s silence and seclusion since the operation have spurred growing talk about his health, stirring fears among some supporters that their leader could be seriously ill.

The speculation has prompted some to ponder what would happen if failing health were to force Chavez to relinquish power. Until recently, even contemplating that possibility would have been considered absurd.

Under Venezuela’s constitution, Vice-President Elias Jaua would take the president’s place during “temporary” absences of up to 90 days. And Jaua would serve the rest of Chavez’s six-year term if the socialism-preaching president were to die or resign.

With a presidential election looming next year, such a scenario might put Jaua and other ruling party leaders in a tough position. None of Chavez’s close confidantes share his charisma and knack for connecting with Venezuela’s poor majority. That constituency has ultimately decided elections in this politically divided South American country.

Steve Ellner, a political science professor at Venezuela’s University of the East, believes the future of Chavez’s political movement would largely depend on whether ill health prevented Chavez from designating a successor.

“There is no second-in-command in the Chavez movement,” Ellner said. “If Chavez is unable to endorse anyone, there will inevitably be dissension.”

However, Ellner said: “There is a great sense of loyalty within the Chavez movement. If Chavez himself is unable to run for physical reasons, but endorses a given candidate, the movement will not fall apart.”

Nobody has heard Chavez publicly speak since he told Venezuelan state television by telephone on June 12 that he was quickly recovering from surgery two days earlier for a pelvic abscess.