Scientists: Spill may be twice as big as feared

WITH each new look by scientists, the oil spill just keeps looking worse.

New figures for the blown-out well at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico show the amount of oil spewing may have been up to twice as much as previously thought, according to scientists consulting with the federal government.

That could mean 42 million gallons to more than 100 million gallons of oil have already fouled the Gulf’s fragile waters, affecting people who live, work and play along the coast from Louisiana to Florida – and perhaps beyond.

It is the third time the US government has had to increase its estimate of how much oil is gushing. Trying to clarify what has been a contentious and confusing issue, officials have given a wide variety of estimates.

All the new spill estimates are worse than earlier ones – and far more costly for BP, which has seen its stock sink since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers. Most of Thursday’s estimates had more oil flowing in an hour than officials once said was spilling in an entire day.

“This is a nightmare that keeps getting worse,” said Michael Brune, executive director of the environmental organisation the Sierra Club. “We’re finding out more and more information about the extent of the damage... Clearly we can’t trust BP’s estimates of how much oil is coming out.”

The spill was flowing at a daily rate that could possibly have been as high as 2.1 million gallons, twice the highest number the federal government had been saying, US Geological Survey director Marcia McNutt, who is coordinating estimates, said on Thursday.

The estimate does not take into account the cutting of the riser pipe on June 3 – which BP said would increase the flow by about 20% – and subsequent placement of a cap.

No estimates were given for the amount of oil gushing from the well after the cut. Nor are there estimates since a cap was put on the pipe, which already has collected more than 3 million gallons.

A new team from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute came in with even higher estimates, ranging from 1 million gallons a day to 2.1 million gallons. If the high end is true, that means nearly 107 million gallons have spilled since April 20.

Even using other numbers that federal officials and scientists call a more reasonable range would have about 63 million gallons spilling since the rig explosion. If that amount was put in gallon milk jugs, they would line up for nearly 5,500 miles. That’s the distance from the spill to London, where BP is headquartered, and then continuing on to Rome.

By comparison, the worst peacetime oil spill, 1979’s Ixtoc 1 in Mexico, was about 140 million gallons over 10 months. The Gulf spill hasn’t yet reached two months. The Exxon Valdez, of 1989, the previous worst US oil spill, was just about 11 million gallons. The new figures mean Deepwater Horizon is producing an Exxon Valdez size spill every five to 13 days.

On Thursday, President Obama acknowledged the “unimaginable grief” of the relatives of the 11 rig workers killed in the explosion.

The White House released a letter from Coast Guard Adm Thad Allen, who is overseeing the crisis, inviting BP chairman Carl- Henric Svanberg and “any appropriate officials from BP” to meet on Wednesday with senior administration officials. Allen said Obama, who has yet to speak with a BP official would participate in a portion of the meeting.

Louisiana leaders are pleading with Washington to immediately bring back offshore drilling and warn that Obama’s six-month halt to new permits for deep-sea oil drilling has sent Louisiana’s most lucrative industry into a death spiral.