Vote totals signal Karzai victory

AFGHANISTAN’S election commission has released preliminary vote totals showing President Hamid Karzai with 54.6% of the vote in the first full results to be released since the country’s August 20 election.

The election still has not been certified as final, though. A UN-backed complaints commission is examining thousands of potentially fraudulent ballots. If the commission invalidates enough votes, Karzai’s returns could drop below 50%, forcing him into a two-man runoff with top challenger Abdullah Abdullah, who has 27.7% of the vote.

A UN-backed group investigating fraud has ordered a massive audit and recount of about 10% of the country’s voting stations.

A European Union monitoring team, meanwhile, said yesterday that about 1.5 million ballots of the 5.6 million cast have indications of fraud, using indicators such as overly high turnout or a preponderance of votes for one candidate.

Final, certified results cannot be released until all investigations, audits andrecounts are finished, meaning results are still likely to be weeks away. The longer the count takes, the more likely it becomes that any potential run-off will be delayed until spring; winter snows, due in November, often block roads in the mountainous country, making an election logistically difficult.

Full preliminary numbers from Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission show turnout was about 38%, a much lower figure than the 70% turnout in the country’s first direct presidential election in 2004.

US and UN election observers say a run-off must take place before winter sets in or else the process would be delayed until spring, leaving the country with a power vacuum as the Taliban increases its attacks.

Certified results originally were to have been released this week.

Outside monitors have accused the Afghan election commission, which is run by Karzai appointees, of loosening its own fraud-identification measures part way through the counting.

The deputy head of the UN mission in Kabul said the Independent Election Commission had voted 6-1 for a formula to root out corrupt ballots, only to reverse itself the next day, claiming it had no legal way to enforce those standards.